Analysis And Simulation Of Land Use Spatial Pattern Of Chongqing Municipality

It is expansive terrain in china, so land use structure, land use degree and landresource utilization present prominent difference in different areas. Study with a typicalarea in a small-scale can be a effective way to understand the land use spatialpattenpattern and driving forces for land use change. At the same time, simulation ofland use spatial pattern can provide a scientific basis for management timely adjustingland use policies, With the rapid economic development and urbanization process inChongqing Municipality, the built up area continues to spread around which leads todrastically reducing of crop-land and increasingly serious problems of land ecologicalenvironment and land-use security pattern. This study takes into account ChongqingMunicipality of China as a typical case and explores the main characteristics of land usechange in a fast developing and urbanization region. Based on the Landsat TM data of1980,1995and2005, the spatial pattern of land use changes are quantified using GISand Fragstats software. According to analysis of the relationship between land use typesand driving factors, spatial pattern in2005is simulated by CLUE-S model, and theeffect of simulation is tested. Then, based on the Landsat TM data of2005, this papersimulated the change of land use spatial pattern in the future (2015), and analyzed thepossible major changes of land use spatial pattern from2005to2015.The results reveal that:â‘ The results indicated that the spatial patterncharacteristics of land use change within the periods1980-1995were relatively stable;Small changes in the area of each land use type and landscape structure. While in theperiods1995-2005, the spatial pattern characteristics of land use changed significantly.Although crop-land still played a leading role, the area was reduced from73%to49%.The built up area and forestland were in a growth trend. The percentage of corp-land toforestland, crop-land to build up area and forestland to crop-land were more than20%.The changes of landscape structure in class-level and landscape-level showed that eachland use type was disturbed by human activities. Compared with1980-1995, landscapefragmentation index in1995-2005increased significantly, which showed that the degreeof fragmentation was more serious than that in80to95. The changes of spatial patterncharacteristics of land use in the periods1995-2005highlights the contradictionbetween the growing demand for land as rapid economic development and limited landresources in Chongqing Municipality.â‘¡The analysis of the relationship between land use types and driving factors by Binary Logistic regression indicates that the impact ofnatural factors such as topography and climate to land use change are little in the shortterm but socio-economic factors such as population, economy and infrastructuresignificantly greater. Regression results can be tested by ROC value. The value of everyland use type is all above0.7, indicating that the regression can be acceptable.According to CLUE-S, the right ratio for simulation of land use spatial pattern in2005is0.8727and the Kappa value is0.7944. It is showed that land use spatial pattern can besimulated successfully with CLUE-S model.â‘¢Combined with "Land Use SurveyReport of Chongqing", this paper simulated the land use spatial pattern in2015. Theresult showed that crop-land still was the dominant landscape. Built up area extendeditself to the surroundings. Those areas with low altitude and slope were easily changedto construction land. Human activities on each land use type and whole landscape weregradually strengthening. The decrease of landscape fragmentation index indicated that,Chongqing government pays more attention to the planning and distribution ofconstruction land during the rapid urbanization process. And the policy of building"green livable eco-city" proposed to accelerate the planning, construction andrenovation of local crushing area. The analysis and simulation of spatial pattern canprovide reference for implementation of regional land resources sustainable utilizationand optimization of land use security pattern.