Spatial Pattern Simulation On Land Use Change In Nanchang Based On CLUE-S Model

Land-use and land-cover change reflects the closest relationship of mutual effectbetween human beings and the nature, which has become the one of the mostimportant parts for researching global changes with the continuous penetration offield research for land-use and land-cover change. In this research, spatial simulationof land-use and land-cover change is an important technology means in studying landuse condition and driving force mechanism of a region, while land-use and land-coverchange is a very complicated geographical process, and it is a hot issue of currentglobal change research to analyze its influenced cause and process of land-use andland-cover change with models, and to perform a kind of situational simulation on itsfuture change of this region. This thesis selects the administrative region of Nanchangcity as the research object, GIS technology and data statistics technology wereadopted to analyze land-use and land-cover change charateristics and know itschanging mechanism of Nanchang city from the year1980to2005, by taking TMremote sensing image of the year1980,1995,2000and2005as the data source. Onthis basis, CLUE-S simulation is adopted to perform three different situationalsimulations on land-use and land-cover of Nanchang in2020. The main researchconclusions are as follows:(1)Apparent changes happen on Nanchang land-ues during1980-2005.Land-use pattern gradually transformed from natural requirement development toeconomic policy development. Land structures are mainly paddy field, water area,forest land and garden plot, whose total area proportion decreased from89.94%to86.76%with the expansion of city however, and then consstruction land-use increasedobviously. In the three researching phases during1980-2005, each land-ues typechanging speed displays the geometry increasing trend, in which city constructionland-use dynamic degree increased from2.0000to31.3675. The transforming speedamong each land type increases continuously wiht the time passing. The transfer-outquantity of paddy field, garden plot and water area are all big, while the transfer-inquantity of city construction land-use is greatly bigger than its transfer-out quantity.(1) CLUE-S model possesses stronger applicability on land-use and land-coverchange of Nanchang city. Based on the land use data of Nanchang city in1995, the13 driving factors—the distance from slope, elevation to river, to city center, to countycenter, to rural residential area, to railway, to highway, to national road, to provincialroad, to county road, population density and per capita GDP from natural andsocio-economic factors were selected to simulate land-use and land-cover changedistribution pattern of Nanchang city in the year2000and2005with CLUE-S model.The simulation result is verified through the actual land-use data of Nanchang city inthe year of2000and2005, which reveals that kappa indexes of the two simulationresults respectively reaches0.85and0.77, showing that CLUE-S model can betterperform simulation researches on land-use and land-cover change spatial distributionpattern of Nanchang city.(2) Through the analysis of land-use and land-cover change during the past25years in Nanchang city, and the reference of its future development planning, the threesituational modes of natural development mode, accelerative development mode,planning mode have been established to perform situational simulation on Nanchangcity in the year2020. The simulation result shows that there exist commoncharacteristics and also apparent differences in land-use and land-cover change indifferent situational modes. In the three modes, the development of Nanchang city allreveals the trend of developing to west, expanding to east, extending to south acrossthe river. In natural development mode, the reduction of forest land and grass landmainly locates in Wanli region, Anyi county, Xinjian county, while water area andtown and country construction land use keep increasing, agricultural area keepsdecreasing, which mainly flows to construction area, and unused land remians aboutthe same; in accelerative development mode, forest land, grass land, water area,agricultural area all decrease, town and country construction land use increasessubstantially. In planning mode, forest land, grass land, water area all increase a littlebit, the amplification of town and country construction land use reaches to maximum,resulting in severe reduction of agricultural land.(3) Researches show that CLUE-S model possesses better capability ofsimulating land-use and land-cover change of Nanchang city, and research conclusioncan offer reference value and significance to relevant departments and researcherswho do researches in similar researching area with CLUE-S model.