Simulation Of Land Use Change In The Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration Based On The CLUE-S Model

Land use change,as an important driver of global environmental change,has become a hot issue of common concern to scholars at home and abroad.As an important method for analyzing land use change,land use change simulation can not only deeply understand the dynamic process,driving mechanism and relationship between land use change and nature,socioeconomics,but also provide a scientific basis for the preparation and management of regional land use planning.The formulation and management of the plan provides a scientific basis for construction,thereby promoting the sustainable use of regional land resources and the sustainable development of society and the economy.Taking the Yunnan central urban agglomeration area as an example,this paper first discusses the characteristics and rules of land use change in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area from 2009 to 2015 from four aspects: the quantity change,transfer change,fractal characteristics and spatial change of land use.Then,the driving factors related to land use change are selected,and the best scale suitable for the simulation of the study area is determined.The Auto-Logistic model is constructed by adding spatial autocorrelation factors to further improve the accuracy of the model.Finally,we use the CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area from 2009 to 2015,and set up three different scenarios to predict the spatial distribution pattern of land use in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area in 2025.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Analysis of the characteristics and rules of land use change from 2009 to 2015 shows that from the perspective of quantitative changes,except for construction land,other types of land are showing a decreasing trend,of which the area of cultivated land has decreased the most and construction land has increased rapidly.From the perspective of changes in transfers,the conversion of cultivated land is the most active,with more transfer areas and a certain amount of replenishment,while construction land is almost only transferred in,not transferred out,showing a net growth trend.From the fractal characteristics,the fractal dimensions of all types of land except grassland have increased,and the stability index has decreased,indicating that the overall ability to resist external interference and maintain its own stability has declined.From the perspective of spatial changes,the center of gravity of each land use type in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area has shifted to a greater or lesser extent,but the overall shift of the center of gravity is not obvious.(2)Perform binary logistic analysis according to the designed 6 spatial scales to obtain regression coefficients and ROC values at different scales.The optimal size of the simulation obtained by comparison and analysis is 700 m × 700 m.The combinations of driving factors for different land use changes are different,showing a "scale effect",but even if the scales are different,the driving factors have little effect on the probability of occurrence of the distribution pattern of land types and the basic direction of the effects is the same.(3)Under the Auto-Logistic regression model,the ROC values of all types of land except grassland have increased,all exceeding 0.7,indicating that the Auto-Logistic regression model can further improve the prediction ability of each land use type,and the model is effective.(4)The CLUE-S model was used to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2015.The accuracy evaluation results of simulation results showed that the overall simulation accuracy reached 91.77%,and the Kappa index reached 0.904.which indicates that the model was built successfully,and the model and its related parameters can be used to predict the future land use distribution of Yunnan central urban agglomeration area.(5)The simulation results under three different scenarios show that: under the natural evolution scenario,a large number of cultivated land,forest land and other land around the city will be occupied for construction,resulting in the continuous loss of many high-quality agricultural land and ecological protection land around the city.Under the scenario of cultivated land protection,the reduction of cultivated land is slowed down,the reduction area is only one third of that under the natural scenario,and many high-quality cultivated land resources are protected,thereby ensuring better food security in Yunnan central urban agglomeration area.Under the situation of ecological protection,the transfer of land use in the red line area of ecological protection is strictly restricted,which makes the rising range of construction land much lower than in the natural evolution scenario,which greatly protects the ecological land of Yunnan central urban agglomeration area,and makes the ecological environment of the region develop towards a harmonious and healthy direction.In this paper,the optimal scale of simulation is determined by constructing multiple scales;then,the Auto-Logistic model is constructed by adding spatial autocorrelation factors to further improve the accuracy of model prediction;finally,three different simulation scenarios are set up to predict the future land use status of different scenarios of Yunnan central urban agglomeration area for the first time.Thus,the construction land in the study area will develop in an orderly,reasonable and safe direction,and ensure that the ecological security and food security in the study area will not be threatened,so as to promote the regional development in the direction of social economy and ecological sustainability.