The Study Of Urban Rail Transit Project Risk Early Warning System Based On Cloud Model

At present, China’s urban rail transit construction is in a period of rapid development. As the urban rail transit project has the characteristics of involving many professionals, large investment projects, involving many departments, long construction period and complex construction environment, it faces a high systemic risk. In the process of construction and operation of large-scale urban rail transit project, the risk points are bound to increase. Therefore, identification, diagnosis, monitoring, assessment and early warning of risk are very important.Based on the theory of early warning management and the analysis of the literature about urban rail transit project risk warning, this article summarizes the characteristics which includes many participating departments, long duration, involving numerous professional, large investment and a high risk of construction. And analyze the characteristics of urban rail transit risk in accordance with the characteristics of the urban rail transit project.Then, this article analyzes the external manifestations of urban rail transit project risk. And on this basis, article proposes the key risk factors of urban rail transit project and pointes out that the cause of urban rail transit project risk is the deterioration of external environment and errors of internal management. Therefore, the early warning of urban rail transit project risk is the early warning of deterioration in the external environment and errors in the internal management of the project. According to the analysis results, this paper constructs urban rail transit project risk pre-warning index system and proposes risk early warning model of urban rail transit project. On this basis, this paper presents an urban rail transit project risk early warning system which includes risk analysis system, risk transduction system, risk management information system and organizations system for risk warning. Risk analysis system is the basis; risk transduction system is the key process; risk management information system is the means; organizations system is the guarantee.Finally, taking Suzhou Metro Second Line for example, this article implements an empirical test of the risk early warning model, and the practical evaluation results consistent with the actual condition which proves the model applicability. The research achievements have certain guiding significance and reference value for the actual work of the urban rail transit project risk warning.