The Evaluation Method Research Of Urban Rail Transit Project Construction Risk Based On Cloud Model

With the improvement of the urban rail transit network, more and more urbanrail transit lines must be built not only on the complex geological conditions anddense buildings, underground pipeline distribution areas, but also through the existingrail lines. It makes the urban rail transit project construction face more risks. So itmakes higher requirements to risk management of the urban rail transit projects.However, in China, large-scale construction of urban rail transit projects start late,develop slow, lack system research of urban rail transit projects construction riskassessment, and less experience can be used for reference. Therefore, this paper takesthis as background, it will try to apply cloud model in construction risk assessment ofthe urban rail transit projects, take vagueness and randomness of risk factors’ impacton assessment results into consideration during the construction, establish aconstruction risk assessment method based on cloud model of urban rail transitprojects to improve the assessment results scientific and accuracy.Firstly, the construction risk factors of urban rail transit projects are identified.On the basis of analyzing construction risk characteristics of urban rail transit projectsand comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the universal methods of riskidentification at present, the construction risk factors of urban rail transit projects areanalyzed from construction workers, construction materials, construction machinery,construction methods and construction environment.Secondly, this paper establishes the construction risk assessment model of urbanrail transit projects based on cloud model. The model adopts the analytic hierarchyprocess and fuzzy trigonometric function to determine the index weight; thencombines the expert scoring method with improved risk matrix method to determineindex risk, and through reverse cloud computing transform it into cloud model;finally calculates total risks of the overall projects by the cloud computing method,and then estimates construction risk assessment results of urban rail transit projectsaccording to the standard cloud model. Finally, taking Shijiazhuang metro line3for example, this paper uses the modelassess its construction risks, the results show that, compared with the traditionalassessment methods, the method takes into account risk vagueness and randomness’impact on assessment results in the risk assessment, the risk assessment method isreligious and the results is reasonable, it’s an effective method to assess constructionrisks of urban rail transit projects.