Research On Assessment Of Post-flood Advance Water Storage Schemes Based On Interval-number Combined Weighting

With the aggravation of water shortage and the rapid development of social economy in China,improving water uitilization efficiency has become a hot research issue in today's society.In order to meet the needs of sustainable economic and social development,China has put forward a new water-control idea that we need to change from "flood control" to "flood management" and flood resources utilization.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to evaluate the effects of flood resources utilization.In this paper,according to the principle of indicator system construction and the grey statistic method,the evaluation index system of post-flood advance water storage in Xiluodu,Xiangjiaba and Three Gorges cascade reservoirs is developed from three aspects:flood control,power generation and ecological conservation.The Monte Carlo method is improved by the Latin hypercube sampling method,and thus the Latin Hypercube Sampling-Monte Carlo(LHS-MC)method is proposed to enhance sampling efficiency.The feasibility of the LHS-MC method is verified by the example of the Three Gorges Reservoir.The current interval-number assessment approach only considers subjective weight and ignores objective information.As a remedy,this paper puts forth two methods to determine the objective interval-number weight depending on the possibility degree of interval number comparison and the variation coefficient of internal data sequences.Then,the chi-square distance measuring data variability is applied to combine the obtained objective weights with the subjective ones that have been screened by the level of expert support.Moreover,the radar chart method is employed to establish an evaluation model based on interval-number combined weighting.As an example,the post-flood advance water storage schemes of Xiluodu,Xiangjiaba and Three Gorges cascade reservoirs are assessed and compared with the evaluation using TOPSIS.The results validate the viability of the evaluation model in assessing reservoir scheduling schemes,proving its advantages over other existing methods.