The Study On Risk Assessment Of Geological Disaster In Tailings Ponds

China currently has the largest numbers of tailings ponds in the world, and it is known that yunnan is "the title of non-ferrous metal kingdom" in China, the total number of tailings in Yunnan province is a large proportion in the national. However there are less of study of geological disaster risk quantitative evaluation in China, especially the special geological environment condition in the southwest of China, the rearserch of the risk assessment is much less than others, so in this paper, basing on blank of this aspect, the author takes Yunnie tailings in southeast yunnan library as the example for the research of geological disaster risk assessment, the results can provide some reference for the dam risk evaluation research in some parts of yunnan.This thesis mainly shows the following aspects:(1) Basing on collecting and investigating the related geological data of malipo, as to the background of regional geological environment conditions, the author analyses the meteorological hydrological conditions, topography condition, engineering geological condition, hydrogeological condition, strata, structure, human engineering activities, etc.(2) As to analyzing the geological characteristics and genesis of disasters in the research district, the author establishes the different evaluation index systems,including the landslide, ebris flow and collapse, then respectively uses gray incidence degree, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine evaluation index weights, at last sets up the mathasmatical model of each geological disaster for the quantitative evaluation, get three areas of the geological disaster including the hazard high, the hazard medium and the low hazard.(3) According to the geological environment conditions of the study area and combining with the characteristics of the tailings pond, the author chooses people, assets and resources as the evaluation indexs of the geological disaster vulnerability, then the author uses the Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight value of evaluation indexes and establishes general mathematical model of generalized goal. At the same time basing on the C++computer programming language, combining with the GIS development platform system for quantitative evaluation of geological disaster vulnerability, the author can get a grade partition map of geological disaster vulnerability. The result of the geological disaster vulnerability of Yunnie tailings shows four areas of vulnerability, including the highest vulnerability, the high vulnerability, the medium vulnerability, the low vulnerability.(4) By the contrast and analysis of the model of geological disaster risk assessment both at home and abroad, the author adopts the model R=H×V. Combining with the characteristics of the tailings project, the author introduces the concept of time into the model and uses the result of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment of geological disasters to evaluate the geological hazard risk of Yunnie tailings, it can get three zones, including the high disaster risk, the medium disaster risk and the low disaster risk...