Environmental Damage Risk Assessment Of Ship Oil Spills Around Ningbo Sea

As more than40years of development, risk assessment has entered the stage of regional scaleecological risk assessment, and the risk assessments of river basin or other large scale has becomethe research hotspots today. Because of the busy traffic, complex of climate and other specialnavigation environment, Ningbo sea becomes a high risk area of ship oil spill. In addition, amultiple nature reserves and important scenic spots, aquaculture, etc., are near from high risk areasuch as channel, wharf, and so on. In case of the leakage accident, the pollutants can quickly spreadto the sensitive regions in a few hours on the general speed of current and wind. The accident willno doubt cause many losses to the coastal ecological environment and port-economy. With thevigorous development of Ningbo marine economy, it has the profound significance to establish aframework of harbor area environmental planning containing oil spill risk assessment. It means thegovernment would control pollution source and scale from the planning stage in order to protectNingbo marine environment, so as to guarantee the sustainable development of economy.So the existing port planning and representative regional environmental planning were firstelaborated here, in order to clear about the main content and steps of planning contains. Combiningthe existing problems of the Ningbo waters planning and the practical application of the riskassessment in the planning, the framework of harbor area environmental planning was set up. Shipoil spill as the main pollution sources in harbor area, the environmental damage of ship oil spill riskassessment was considered into the framework. According to the current mainstream of ecologicalrisk assessment models, the framework of environmental damage of ship oil spill risk assessmentwhich integrating advantages of those leading modes was built. And according to the content of theframework, a corresponding system of methods was set up, including probability forecasting ofship oil spill accidents and consequence analysis. In consequence analysis, a lot risk factors wereconsidered in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, such as accident risk factors (includingnatural environment, technology engineering and personnel factors), the factors of aggravatingconsequence (including the quantity of the oil, the type of oil spill, environmental sensitivity andeffect of emergency) and the factors of reducing consequences (preventive measures, emergencyability). It is a multi-level, multi-dimensional evaluation model.Finally, Ningbo waters were taken as the research object. Using the method system mentionedin the environmental damage of ship oil spill risk assessment, the current situation analysis andprediction of risk probability of ship oil spill accidents were completed. And using the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model, the damage of the simulation oil spill to Ningbo waters, the levelof risk, and the risk acceptable level evaluation of Ningbo waters were completed. At last,corresponding suggestions on the evaluation results were put forward.