Distributed Load Forecasting Method For Distribution Network

With the developme nt of the national economy and the improvement of people’sliving standards, we require the distr ibution network system to be more and morereliable, safe and economica l. In the operatio n of distr ibution network, each feederhas different types of loads. Different types of loads have different daily load curve,substatio n trans formers and feeders will reach the peak load at different time. Theload on heavy-load or over-load feeders(or transfor mers) can be transferred to alight-load feeders(or transfor mers) through distr ibution network reconstruction, thusadjusting load leve l of operating feeders, eliminating feeder overload, improvingvoltage quality and reducing system network loss.In order correspond the developing require ments of d istr ibution network’smodernization and inte llige ntization, the paper forcasts the load when the distr ibutionnetwork is under operation according to the current situation of low equip mentutilization rate, low power supply reliability, line losses and high status quo in thedistribution network, provid ing a reliable basis for the online distr ibution networksecurity assessment, early warning and network reconstruction.As the distrib ution network reconfiguration belongs to the distr ibution operationleve l, load forecasting results can provide data support for the reconstruction of thedistribution network. It has become a research hot spot to forecast the load in thefuture hours accord ing to the actual s ituation of the distr ibutio n and network topologywith high accuracy and realization of network reconstruction, secur ity assessment andearly warning. This paper has carried on a series of study around this hot spot.Section forecasting is forecast different feeder section’s load in variousDistribution areas according to operation mode adjustment.Feeder load forecasting is to forecast load through certain feeder switch, and thenforecast the ma ximum curre nt va lue on this feeder. The future distr ibutiontransformer’s capacity is cons idered to determine whether the reload pheno meno nremains.Bus load forecasing is the overall load forecasting of the distr ibution network’sbus. Its meaning lies that it could trans fer the load on the overloaded bus to the lightload bus through contact switch, provid ing a basis for the reconstruction ofdistribution network. Bus load forecasting is to forecast the miximum load of a bus in certain future period (hours or days), providing support for deciding distributiontransformer capacity on bus.