Man-Machine Risk Analysis Methods And Applications Of Urban Rail Transit Dispatching

Urban rail transit is vigorous developing in our country, especially it has advantages of high speed, large capacity and relatively small affected by the weather, which make it become the ideal choice for people’s travel. Urban Rail Transit is more closely related to people’s lives, so to ensure its operational safety is very important. The Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System is the main center of urban rail transit train operations management and train operation control, it has great significance to study theirs security risk. The Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System is a tightly integrated man-machine system, the correct operation of personnel and the normal operation of equipment is a basic requirement to ensure its safe operation.In this thesis, it studies the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System based on systems theory, security theory, cybernetics, human error theory. A human-machine risk analysis method of Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System is proposed combine with literature analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, human error model analysis method and grey correlation analysis. The main works as follows:Firstly, it detailed analyses the risk characterization of Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System based on the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System function and structure. Through the perspective of technical equipment and personnel task characteristics analyzing obtain the man-machine integrated closely characteristics of Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System and further find the risk of man-machine coupling characteristics.Secondly, it proposes an improve the FMEA method from the perspective of the train dispatcher for the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System man-machine integrated closely characteristics based on the analysis of the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System related equipment. Constructing the equipment failure mode classification framework of the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System. Through the case application analysis, determined the specific equipment failure mode and effect on the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System.Then, it analyzes the human error of Urban Rail Transit dispatching based on the analysis of Urban Rail Transit dispatcher’s tasks. Also, it reviews the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of existing human error models and human error classification methods. Constructing the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System human error model by applying the Rasmussen model to extend Wickens model, and based on it propose a human error classification method of the Urban Rail Transit Dispatching System. It Obtain human error mode in case of typical device failure modes through the application analysis. It gives detailed identification results through the actual human error work identifying for the train dispatcher "Telephone blocking mode" mission scenarios. Finally, equipment failure probability, human error probability, man-machine failure influence probability and accident severity are used to evaluate man-machine failure risk, the risk factors are characterized with intuitionistic triangular fuzzy numbers. Four factors’ objective weights are calculated based on fuzzy set value theory and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy. At last, a man-machine failure risk prioritization model for The Urban Rail Transit Dispatching based on intuitionistic triangular fuzzy numbers and grey correlation analysis method.