Research On The Forcasting Of Tourism Regional Traffic Flow

The domestic tourism, due to the stable economy development and the enhanced people living standards, has embraced mushrooming updates, but because of the imbalanced regional economic development. The tourism has different development speeds regionally, especially for the west part of China, who is lagging behind because of inadequate transport infrastructure and trailed tourism traffic management in tourism traffic. Therefore, in order to plan the tourism traffic infrastructure reasonably and improve it management skills, it is of great importance to predict the tourism traffic volumes regionally punctually and accurately.Firstly based on the tourism traffic characteristics analysis, the paper will build the related model later on. Because of the distinct character differences compared with the traditional city traffics, it is necessary to the reanalyze the regional tourism traffic analysis zones, whose principles and procedures and fuzzy clustering analysis will be proposed, and it is calculated by the Matlab programming. The tourism trips is regarded as the unit in the prediction, the paper will model to transfer the difference between the traditional tourist arrivals and tourism traffic trips. Based on the double-constrained gravity model, the paper will predict the tourism traffic distribution, and proposes the constraints which take into account the tourism traffic. During the traffic division, the paper will transfer the number of tourist trip distributions into the number of vehicle travel distributions. Based on the traffic assignment outcomes, as well as the unbalanced nature of time and space tourist traffic, the paper will predict the tourist traffic during the specific period by the seasonal traffic distribution model, to manage and regulate the tourism traffic in practice.