Research On Production Planning Optimization Based On Market Forecasting

With the progress of time, people’s demand of daily necessities changed from the application of function to the pursuit of more personalized, texture and use of comfort direction. Also with the popular elements and modern design integrate into daily life gradually, the product styles are increasingly diverse. Mass production model has been unable to meet the individual needs of people, the enterprises of commodity and other production have shifted to the model of varieties and small batch orders production.Such enterprises in order as the drive, the market demand decided to produce, but the demands of market are randomness from the customer. If we not implementation of production process until the arrive of the market demand, then there will be the situation of peak of sales exhausted, and trough of sales idle resources. Capacity is also a difficult thing for the enterprise in the model of market demand as the drive to produce. If the capacity is set too low, it can’t cope with the peak of the market required; Capacity is set too high, turn wasted a lot of manpower and material resources. So how to produce into active and at the same time how to set the value of an optimal production capacity so as to satisfy the market with the peak of the minimum cost?In this paper, by forecasting the enterprise’s sales to grasp the trend, production sales during the sales trough in advance according to the market demand trend to deal with the peak of the stock part. As a result, the idle resources will be able to change into profits. While reducing the demand of production in the peak period, at the same time can effectively reduce the cost of production capacity configuration. But the cost of production with low investment will lead to increased inventory costs. In addition to its holding cost, it also has the risk cost. So how to make the best compromise between the cost of inventory risk and capacity allocation cost will be the focus discuss content in this paper.The exact market demand forecast is particularly important, because all the starting of plans is based on the data. Combining quantitative and qualitative forecasts predict the sales in this paper and keeping up with market dynamics while extract the historical data. For quantitative prediction, predicts by adaptive performance and generalization performance BP neural network is better than traditional quantitative forecasting methods. Against with the shortcomings of network convergence is slow and easy to fall into local minima, introduction of Newton’s method and the BP competition algorithm to optimize the traditional BP network while design BP network model. Combined the improved BP Neural Network with the qualitative forecasting methods eventually, referred ANN qualitative prediction method, and discussed several realization methods of ANN prediction method.This paper build an inventory-capacity costs mathematical model based on the predicted value of the market demand, solving a planned production capacity makes the inventory and capacity at the lowest total cost under the premise of meet the peak demand. On the basis of the planned capacity targeted to the lowest total cost, further research in making production planning under the model of the stock complement production and draw the appropriate capacity requirements planning.Finally, verify the validity of the ANN prediction and the mathematical model of capacity-inventory with an example of daily manufacturing company, illustrated with examples of production planning and capacity requirements planning.