Inmates Out Of The Prison After Practice And Explore The Possibility Of Re-offending Forecast

The new historical period, the re-through-labor, delinquency primary standardmeasure of regulatory work. Implement the "primary standard" requirements, it isnecessary to further strengthen and improve the prediction of the likelihood ofre-offending inmates after his release, to the maximum extent possible to improve theaccuracy of the forecasts, reliability, authenticity.Our country recidivism prediction of a late start, at present only in HunanProvince, Jiangsu Province, Shanghai city and a few other provinces to promote theuse of prisoners out of the prison to the possibility of predicting scale.Each one hashis good points. Three predictive scale, but there also exist some defects, such asShanghai City Prediction Scale lack of psychological assessment content, Jiangsuprovince prediction scale does not reflect the prison execution effect, Hunan provincePrediction Scale strong subjectivity, measuring surface narrow, prediction method ofsimple, also is in to be repeated verification, revision level.On the basis of scientific, rational and optimization of Hunan province to thepossibility of forecasting scale of objective, this paper analyzes the domestic andforeign Prediction Scale Theory and practice the use of the advantages anddisadvantages, to a jail in Hunan province420to criminal personnel as the samplesfor scientific investigation and statistical analysis, elaborated the crime5thesubjective reason and objective reason reasonable extraction6, affecting the numberof predictors of recidivism, using the software of screened26which significantlyaffect and relevance of the predictors, and to Hunan province Prediction Scale servingpunishment personnel psychological testing, a new life plan, correction of phaseassessment, out of the prison level evaluation predictors of improvement andoptimization, rational design of scoring scale and classification table, make Hunanprovince recidivism possibility of prediction of the structural scale.Hope that throughHunan province prediction scale improvement of Chinese prisons to establish andperfect the prisoners out of the prison to the possibility of forecasting system toprovide a reference basis of practice.