Prediction Of Economic And Environmental Development In Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt GM (1,1) Model

As the development and opening of Liaoning coastal economic belt has become part of Chinese national strategy, this region will act as a major battle field of expanding Liaoning’s economic size, and furthermore, it will undertake the task of transforming Liaoning’s economic growth mode and constructing for two types of social.This article through the analysis for the Liaoning coastal economic belt economic and environmental of the present status development, based on the related theory coordination degree from the foreign and domestic scholars research constructs the liaoning coastal economic belt of coordinated development of economy and environment evaluation index system and coordination of evaluation model for liaoning coastal economic belt and six city the coordinated development of economy and environment on the comparative analysis from2003to2010. After that, by using grey prediction model for all coordination evaluation index of the Liaoning coastal economic belt from2003to2010forecast, so we get the index matrix form2011to2020, then using the coordination degree model, calculated the economy and environment evaluation index of the liaoning coastal economic belt and six cities in it, and combined with the early warning model take the corresponding evaluation and analysis, draw a conclusion that:in the overall, the economic and environmental coordination development level of Liaoning coastal economic belt is not so well, concretely we can divided it into two segments: from2011to2016, the economy and environment coordination degree index of Yingkou city is basic coordination and is less alert, the economy and environment coordination degree standard of Jinzhou, Panjin two cities is inharmonious basicly, so they are in the moderately critical, and the economy and environment coordination degree is inharmonious always, so they are all in the heavy alert, as to the Dalian city, although the coordinate development of it is better than others in the standard using the economy and environment coordination degree, but as a result of its growth rate of the economy and environment coordination degree is negative, the level of alert for Dalian increase to the heavy alert; from2011to2020, adding the growth rate of the economy and environment coordination degree for the evaluation criterion, in the six cities of Liaoning coastal economic belt, only the situation of Yingkou city is better well, for the light alert, the five cities else are listed heavy alert, so they need extra attention and timely intervention adjustment of relevant departments, in order to prevent the prediction results of deterioration situations.