Tianshui Economic Zone Carbon Economic Development Capacity - Based Off Of The Greenhouse Gas Footprint

Most people have accepted and acknowledged that enhanced greenhouse effect leaded to the global warming. The greenhouse gas emission was one of the hotspots. Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone’s economic development and ecological health are equally important. So, this study checked Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone’s greenhouse gas. According to analyzing the results systematically, the economic zone greenhouse gas conditions were found out, then some appropriate measures of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions were proposed.In this study, greenhouse gas footprint was counted by GHG accounting methods of 《Provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines for the preparation》. In the results of calculation, the Guantian economic zone and7cities of the economic zone in1995～2011greenhouse gas footprint was calculated and analyzed. Then the economic zone of the greenhouse gas footprint factor analysis and development forecasts were researched by the formula of Kaya and scenario analysis. According to the results, we analyzed and planned the low-carbon economy development capacity of this economic zone. The main conclusions of this study are:(1) The total greenhouse gas footprint in the economic zone from1995to2011substantially holds growth trend. The greenhouse gas footprint was4006.78×104t in1995, and15448.64×104t in2011. The average annual growth rate was8.80%. Weinan was the city of the max greenhouse gas footprint in the seven cities of the economic zone, and the city’s greenhouse gas footprint was more than25%of the greenhouse gas footprint of the economic zone. Shangluo was the min one. Its greenhouse gas footprint was0.95%of the economic zone. Followed descending order, greenhouse gas footprint of cities in2011were that, Weinan(5056.47×104t), Xi’an(3934.17×104t), Xianyang (3577.20×104t), Baoji(1251.09×104t), Tongchuan(1127.14×104t), Shangluo(267.73×104t), Tianshui(234.84×104t).(2) The most important source of the greenhouse gas footprint was energy activities. Its proportion of16years was about67%. The next was waste disposal of15.71%. The last were the process of agricultural and industrial production, average proportions were8.49%,8.26%. Toward the cities of the economic zone, energy activity was the main sources in the majority of the cities. The forestry sector, with the function of "carbon sink" in1995-2011carbon changed little, average annual growth of2.06%.The most important greenhouse gas was CO2in the economic zone, the next was CH4, the last was N2O.(3) The greenhouse gas footprint per capita and per unit area of greenhouse gas footprint of Guantian Economic Zone was a rising trend from1995to2011. The annual average growth rates were8.06%,8.80%. Tongchuan and Weinan had the larger values, and Shangluo and TianShui had smaller. The per ten thousand yuan GDP greenhouse gas, carbon intensity, energy intensity of the economic zone reduced disciplinarily. The per ten thousand yuan GDP greenhouse gas was4.93t/104yuan which was the maximal one in1995,1.84t/104yuan in2011. It’s decreased62.64%.Weinan and Tongchuan had the maximum value.(4) The carbon risk index of the economic zone rosed to0.1967from0.0548from1995to2011. The carbon risk index level was "Ⅰ", from "Ⅰb" into "Ⅰc". The carbon risk index was bigger in Weinan. Its levels were "Ⅱb". The carbon risk index was smaller in Tianshui and Shangluo. Those levels were "Ⅰb ".(5) Based on the formula of Kaya, the gray correlation degree analyzed that the most associated factor was unit energy consumption of CO2emissions intensity, followed by energy intensity and population. According to the LMDI analysis, the most important positive factors was the increase of per capita GDP, and the main negative factor was the reduction of the energy intensity. By the scenario analysis and prediction, the greenhouse gas footprint will be26283.10x104t under the low-carbon economic policy scenarios of greenhouse gas footprint, so it is significantly lower than the greenhouse gas footprint of the baseline scenario which will be34871.29×104t. The ten thousand yuan GDP greenhouse gas and the carbon risk index declined obviously.