College Financial Risk Early Warning And Empirical Analysis

The college financial risks has been a hot issue that has aroused widespreadconcern. From the beginning of2009,the Ministry of Education, the Ministry ofFinance issued the implementation of the college debt policy, government debt work atthe end of2012so that the majority of public colleges and universities has been toresolve the debt, bank loans basically cleared. University of debt at the same time, theGovernment also qualified from the systems and procedures increase in college loans.Bank debt is cleared or reduction does not prevent the implementation of the college’soriginal planning of infrastructure projects, the emergence of new payment of the costsof the Institutions of Higher Education. The face of the new policies and newuniversities from the past outstanding debt risk into financial risk-based funding strandbreaks.In this paper, mathematical statistics method and system analysis to the provinceprovincial37colleges and universities in2011and2012, the financial data for thesample has been systematically studied and index analysis. Firstly, provincial collegesand universities under the new policy environment with the new financial phenomenonthat the university’s financial risk is no longer a direct the dominant bank loans debt riskunder the new policy, but indirect recessive financial risk, the main form of financingchannels for non-bank borrowings way bypass, the repayment of funds advanced use ofdebt in the form of concealment, has a form of hidden-risk characteristics. Secondly,according to the type of college financial risk, the reason for the existence of the collegefinancial risk.Further more, according to the new situation after the University of bonds,in reference to the basis of previous studies, the establishment of accounts payable,accounts receivable, infrastructure liabilities and other indicators to the assessmentbased financial early warning indicator system, and using factor analysis the method established the college financial early warning model, using the theory of mathematicalstatistics by type of risk in colleges and universities. Subsequently, the paper usessupport vector machine model to verify the university financial risk early warning,through empirical analysis to prove the validity of the model of early warning. Finally,using the method of comparative analysis, analysis of10indicators on a risk collegesand universities appear more problematic, colleges and universities to strengthen theinternal audit monitoring, standardized financial accounting, increase receivables clean,control the scale of the project and increase suggestions and measures of capitalreserves and risk prevention.