Minority Population Life Table Method And Its Application

Yunnan province has many nationalities.25ethnic minorities have formed acertain settlement region and scale population, in which there are specific to15ethnicgroups in Yunnan. Different ethnic group has different development level of socialeconomics and culture, which performs on population death, that is, different ethnicgroup has different death level and life expectancy. Comparing and analyzing ofdifferent national death index, which in turn contributes to an understanding of thedevelopment level of ethnic minorities and providing scientific basis for the allocationof social resources, for example medical and health care. It is playing a guiding role tosupport the development of ethnic minorities in Yunnan province.Life table is a very good tool to research population death. In order to compilean accurate life table, we need a certain number of populations. If population is less,the death rate is likely to have large fluctuations. We directly use such mortality tocompile a life table which can not reflect the population death force truly. So beforepreparation of ethnic groups with small population life table, we need to usestatistical method of graduation the mortality. Part of the minority population inYunnan province is less, the mortality need to graduation before compiling the lifetable.Graduation is a statistical method which using initial estimates, combining withprior to improve the initial estimate. The purpose of this method is to get a betterestimate. Prior views different expression will produce different kinds of graduationmethods, like the parameters of the graduation method, the Spline graduation method,Bayesian graduation method, etc. In this paper, we mainly use Spline graduation andBayesian graduation.Spline graduation don’t need to know mortality priori information, according tothe population size of different ethnic groups, using cubic Spline functioninterpolation on the death population, and then calculate the national mortality ratesby age group. Bayesian graduation need use of mortality prior information, this paper assumes that the selected eight mountains minority death levels were similar. We usethis priori information to graduation mortality. According to calculate the posteriordistribution of the mortality significantly expression, Bayesian graduation is dividedinto a Bayesian method based on decision theory and Bayesian method based onMCMC. Bayesian method based on decision theory, prior distribution of mortality isassumed to be Beta distribution, when death population obey the binomial distribution,the posterior distribution of the mortality also obey Beta distribution. This method canbetter solve some age mortality was0.Bayesian method based on the MCMC cannotget mortality significantly expression of posterior distribution, mainly using the Gibbssampling to realize to the posterior distribution of inference by WinBUGS software.This method in dealing with tail age mortality rate of the volatile effect is better. In aword, whether Spline graduation or Bayesian graduation can be very good to solve theproblem of ethnic minorities with small population mortality is volatile.Compiling eight ethnic groups with small population life table by the mortalityafter graduation, it can be seen that life expectancy after graduation is more accurateand stable than before graduation. JiNuoZu has the highest average life expectancyand DuLongZu has the lowest average life expectancy in eight ethnic group, bothdiffer seven years old or so, the rest of all ethnic groups in between. Description of allethnic groups in Yunnan province in such aspects as economy, culture and health stillhas great gap.