The Research On The Impact Of Economic Growth Changes In Population Age Structure Of China

Since1949, great changes have taken place in China. Among the many factorsthat affect economic growth, the contribution of labor is extremely important. WithChina’s economy growing, the transformation of population has brought about thechanges of people’s age structure. In2000, China entered the stage of the aging of thepopulation’s age structure, and with the gradual disappearance of China’sdemographic dividend, we need more motives to speed up the economical growth.China is the most populous country in the world, so analyzing the potential power ofChina’s economic growth from the perspective of the population’s age structure is ofpractical significance.At the beginning, this paper reviews and comments the researches of savings,investment, labor supply and economic growth on the age structure of the populationdone by scholars from China and abroad. And then, it chooses to discuss the effects ofthe age structure on economic growth from the elements of supply. It mainly worksthrough three channels of the labor stock, capital stock and technological progress toaffect the economic growth, and among these, the influence of age structure of thepopulation on the capital stock and technical progress is the main aspect of this study.Considering the age structure of the population on the economic impact of timeeffects and data availability, The paper selects statistics for20years,1992-2011,establishes a provincial panel data regression model of the age structure of thepopulation of the capital stock, technological progress and economic growth, anddirectly analyzes the impact of the age structure on the three economical variationsfrom an empirical point of view. Because of the working-age population’s significantcontribution to economic growth, the study also uses2010census data of theworking-age population segments ages sectional regression.The empirical resultsshows that the working-age population have a significant positive impact on thecapital stock and technological progress, compared with a negative impact on theelderly population, The proportion of working-age population has a positive effect onthe health of human capital, the proportion of the elderly population positive impacton the health of human capital, the negative impact of the child dependency ratio andthe birth rate education human capital. And there are also differences in the study ofthe influence of the working-age population on technological progress. Finally, according to empirical results combined with the actual situation inChina, several policy recommendations to achieve economic growth in the populationage structure aging trend are brought up.Mainly including four aspects: strengtheningthe demand for old-age security and the system of supply, and enhance savings motive;expand educational resources, promote technological progress; delaying retirement,raise the labor force participation rate; create a good market environment, make abalance in regional economic development.