| With the end of the population dividend period,aging population structure and decreasing labor force are other challenges for Chinese economy in the future.Behind the economic growth miracle through Reform and Opening in the past thirty years,China's economic growth began to slow down,and GDP per capita growth fell to 6.1% in the year 2016.The population structure of China is formatted with the development of Chinese special social experience in recent 100 years.People who experienced the war before Republic have been already come into old age,while the people who grew up with New China are still the major labor participants in our society.The factors of natural disasters,fertility,family planning and other things,make the special distribution of age structure in our country.The “Chinese miracle” is benefited from the “demographic dividend”.However,this past period could also bring the problems such as aging population structure,high dependency ratio,decreasing number of labor force,which may have certain negative impacts on our economic development.So,in the context of slowing economic growth,it is necessary to investigate the human capital accumulation and economic growth under the effect of demographic changes,and its influence mechanism,which is conducive to anticipate the economic impact of population problems and analyze the impact of populationrelated policies.This paper including two parts: the first part focus on the prediction of human capital,while the other discussing the effect of population age structure on economic growth.First,based on the prediction of future population and distribution,the J-F method is used to predict the future Chinese human capital index at the first time.Lifetime income measure of human capital can comprehensively explain the influence of the age structure of the population,but also reflect the population age structure changes caused by related population policy(e.g.,family planning policy and retirement policy)adjustment with human capital,which is one of the most important factors of economic growth.So,it could demonstrate the influence of human capital on the age structure of the population,and depicts the impact of human capital clearly.Secondly,this paper studies the effect of population age structure on economic growth,and analyzes the influence mechanism of population age structure.The extensions from the impact of economic growth to channels of population make the research no longer only concentrate on simple effect between population structure,proportion of the working age population,dependency ratio and age group,thus avoid the problem of large deviations and unstable estimates of population parameters.Finally,the influence of population age structure on economic growth is calculated quantitatively by combining the model of economic impact mechanism and the prediction results of population and human capital.And the optimization of policy arrangements is discussed,taking the improvements of fertility policy adjustment to population age structure and human capital,the impact of delay retirement policy formation at different fertility levels,and fertility policy adjustment and delay retirement effects into consideration.The main body of this paper includes 4 chapters.In the third chapter,a comprehensive index system of human capital is constructed,based on the J-F method.This prediction method can predict the human capital in the long term with better stability,and can be used for scenario analysis to estimate the policy effect with the fertility rate parameter setting.Among them,the subdivided population is the main parameters of our model.Based on the multi-state population forecast model,our paper estimated the population by urban and rural areas,gender,age and education level in 2015-2060,and simulated the impact of retirement delay on the future labor quantity,quality,distribution structure changes under the different fertility level.With the release of family planning policy,if the future fertility can be maintained at 1.6,the number of labor force would be decrease to 813 million in the next 15 years.If the implementation of delayed retirement to 65 years old,China's working age population would be increased by 20.72% more than the current policy.The delayed retirement policy can quickly improve the labor supply,and its improvement is greater than the fertility rate increased to 1.93 before 2046.In the fourth chapter,our paper simulates the Chinese comprehensive human capital index in 2015-2060 under the fertility policy adjustment,with the change of fertility parameters in population prediction model,to reflect the influence of quantity and distribution of the human capital by fertility policy.According to the extent of family planning policy releasing,our study set low,medium and high fertility scenario,to analyze the changes of total human capital,the per capita quantity and structure in the future quantitatively under different scenarios,and make a contrast between different effects of delayed retirement policy.It is illustrated that family planning policy releasing can not only reduce the total amount of human capital and increase the human capital reserves in the future,but improve the per capita level of human capital and optimize the age structure.In the fifth chapter,our work investigates the impact of retirement age on China's human capital,and deduces that the retirement delay can affect China human capital from both the micro and macro aspects,also has the incentive mechanism to human capital accumulation in the future.The Jorgenson-Fraumeni method is adopted to measure human capital and simulate human capital stock for China for 2015-2060 under different retirement ages.The results show that,if the retirement age postpones to 65 by year 2032,compared to that of the current retirement age,the total human capital will increase 21.7%,and labor force human capital will increase 24.4%.In the meantime,human capital per capita and labor force human capital per capita will increase 4.6% and 3.1%,respectively.Moreover,the increase of an individual's human capital will be larger for highly educated,and thus will encourage human capital investment in long run.Additionally,the policy on adjusting retirement ages will complement China's new family planning policy,and will help achieve the level of human capital aimed in the new family planning policy.In the sixth chapter,based on the human capital model proposed by Mankiw,Romer and Weil(1992),the variables of population age structure is introduced to construct the Chinese inter-provincial space panel model under the development accounting framework.Using the provincial panel data of 28 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 1995 to 2015,the establishment of econometric model estimates that population age structure variables have a significant impact on economic growth with stable relationship.It can be decomposed into five channels.They are human capital,savings rate,employment rate,direct impact and TFP,with influence from large to small.Among them,the human capital is the most important channel for population age structure to affect the economic growth.The model uses a fixed effect and a variable method to estimate robust results.Through calculation,the population age structure variable can be divided into two key variables: the proportion of the working age population to the total population,and the proportion of main labor force to the total labor force.Both of the two variables have a significant positive effect on economic growth.The overall impact of population age structure change through all channels during the period 1995-2015 can increase the per capita GDP by 7.47%.But with the decline of these two variables in the future,it will bring-4.88% of the negative impact to economic growth in the next 15 years. |
PDF Full Text Request