Construction And Optimization Of China’s Postgraduate Enrollment Plan Model

With the development of China’s postgraduate enrollment has increased year by year, thestate macro-control policies increasingly need to adapt to the needs of social and economicdevelopment, therefore, the preparation of annual graduate enrollment plan needs to be justified,and build a reasonable model for postgraduate enrollment plan year.In order to predict better and make our graduate enrollment plan year, on the basis of somescholars and researchers achievement, this thesis analyzes the six major factors affecting China’spostgraduate enrollment plan year: national policy, economic development, social demand,school-age population, training and funding. The impact of China’s postgraduate factors intoexternal demand leading type and internal training leading type, according to the data of theregression analysis, the multiple regression equation to verify and forecast of China’spostgraduate enrollment plan number and year, external demand model and internal trainingmodel organically, to get a good prediction effect.Nonlinear regression model can also forecast China’s postgraduate year enrollment scalebetter, based on the collection and collation of index data of the influencing factors of Chinesepostgraduate enrollment scale, the use of software SPSS to forecast China’s postgraduateenrollment plan year, optimized and comparative analysis, proposed plan according to the actualthe rational choice model to predict and determine our postgraduate year enrollment is necessary.The Combination forecasting model is a very good linear regression model and nonlinearregression model. Predicted by the multiple linear regression model and nonlinear regressionmodel, based on time series prediction model, prediction for correction of multiple linearregression model and neural network model, and continuously update the index system and thenumerical prediction, in order to better study and determine the specific period of graduateenrollment plan year.Finally, the thesis points out the development of postgraduate enrollment plan decisionsupport system network platform, the realization of China’s postgraduate year enrollment planscientific, standardization, program management, departments at all levels should be maintainedtimely feedback and communication, real-time update the database, the formation of the latestand most complete national human resources department of information database, so that timelymaster training ability, social demand, national economic development, so as to grasp thedynamics of the admissions unit, admission units, the provinces of the tutor of GraduateEnrollment Requirements, and the information of various effects of enrollment scale of graduatestudents, which provided scientific basis for scientific and rapid preparation of annual Graduateenrollment plan.