The Analysis Of The Influence Factors And Forecast Of Carbon Emission In Guangdong Province

With the global environmental problems become more serious, China is facing greatpressure on the energy consumption and environmental issues. As the largest province ofChina’s economic, Guangdong’s GDP has kept growing in a10%rate. While with thehigh-speed economic development, it’s along with a large number of energy consumption.Guangdong Province is in a stage of rapid industrialization, the per capita CO2emissions ismuch higher than other developed countries,so the development of low-carbon economy hasbecome the main task in Guangdong. It has very important significance to research the energyconsumption and CO2emission problems.The research framework of this paper can be summarized as: First of all, In order toallocate the general situation of Guangdong province, Based on the series data statistics of2000-2010,the paper calculated carbon emissions from energy consumption, carbon dioxideemissions intensity and per capita carbon emissions of Guangdong Province. Results showthat with the rapid economical development, the carbon emissions from energy consumptionwere increasing, the level of carbon emission per10000Yuan of GDP had a trend to decrease.The proportion of CO2emission of secondary industry was the highest. Second, using thelogarithmic mean weight Divisia method (LMDI), the per capita carbon emissions weredecomposed into four effects, i.e, the energy intensity, coefficient of carbon emissions, percapita GDP and energy consumption structure. Meanwhile, it established Guangdong’s percapita carbon emissions factor decomposition model to measure the contribution rate ofvarious factors. Energy consumption intensity is the most important influence factor of carbonemission, so this paper uses LMDI method in analyzing energy consumption intensity inGuangdong. The result shows economic growth contributed the most to the increase of carbonemission. Finally,based on the data about Guangdong’s carbon emmissions from2000to2010, this paper use GM(1,1) model to implement short-term prediction about Guangdong’scarbon emission. The result show that Guangdong’s carbon dioxide emissions will be7.4559billion tons by2016and the situation of carbon reduction will be very grim during the TwelfthFive Years. Finally, this paper has put forward the specific policies and recommendations forsustainable development.