A Study On The Early Warning About Index And Model Of Township Government Liabilities

With the countrysidel economical structure reforming, China’s township economy has been developing rapidly, since the1980s. But at the same time the township government liabilities have been spreading and deteriorating, they are not only a large amount and a wide range and repayment in poor condition, but also was increased situation. The heavy liabilities of township have been seriously hindering the development of townshipl economy,have been leading to a tremendous negative effect, have been causing the widespread attention of political circles and academia.In recent years, academic researches on the township liabilities have been emerging, but mostly focus on the causes and countermeasures, but early warning research is almost blank. Early warning research is essential to solve the township liabilities effectively. Therefore, this study attempts to propose an effective early-warning indicators of rural debt township liabilities and an early warning system model, which through the control of township liabilities advantly to prevent the risk of liabilities, to reduce potential losses.Studies suggest that the generation of township liabilities is the result of many factors. Based on this hypothesis, the researchers first analyzed the reasons for the formation of township liabilities, influence factors of moderate scale (including the ability to be liabilities, financial capacity, use efficiency, economic growth, fiscal deficit, etc.), and early warning indicators of the liabilies according to the building principles, proposed the preliminary ideas of early warning indicator system about township liabilities. Taking into account the rational and scientific of the indicators, the tudy deside to design an expert questionnaire, for university teachers, postgraduates, doctoral students, civil servants, village officials, MPA and other investigation. According to the survey result, the study screening select the indicators, then presents the basic ideas of t township liabilities on early warning indicator system. Secondly, combining with the use of AHP software yaahp, determine the weight of the early warning indicators and further build the early warning models. Once again, determine the risk range of every indicator and the risk range of the comprehensive indicators, and the method of change the index value to the index score. Then according to the early warning model determine the township liabilites warning level, issue the appropriate warning signals. Fourth, through a certain town in Nantong of Jiangsu province, the study has do some empirical research on township liabilities, to obtain first-hand information on the liabilities, specifically show the using process and the using menthed of the bulided early-warning model about township liabilities.Finally, studies suggest that to early-warning mechanism must be established adaping with the early-warning indicator system and the early-warning model to preventi the township liabilities crises, including information gathering systems, information analysis systems, early warning reporting mechanism, crisis management systems and information feedback systems.Given the limited government capacity and the distortion of social surveys, government should use the early-warning model to practice, develop and improve it continuously, under the guidance of the appropriate scale theory and the concept of governance and the theory of public crisis management.The significance of this study is to provide theory support on the early-warning about township liabilities for the financial system, thus contributing to improve the relevant financial policies; to provide reference and information for principles, ways and means that higher levels government grant programs to the township government, trying to make up for this deficiency. In addition, the study use some research methods,such as literature, expert survey, social survey methods and quantitative analysis (build early-warning indicator system on township liabilites; use AHP to determine the index weight; change index value to index score; the indicators’ risk range division; the empirical application of indicators and the builded model, etc.) and some other research methods.