The Research And Application On System Dynamics Model Of Important Mineral Resources Consumption Forecast

Mineral resources is the key to the development of national economy, and also is the important force to accelerate the industrialization process, especially some important strategic mineral resources, which is an important part of economic construction in our country. With the rapid development of our economy and the industrialization process accelerating, the domestic mineral resources supply and demand situation become increasingly tense and face some problems such as low grade, hard to be exploited, environmental pollution, and so on. Domestic production is difficult to meet the demand, the gap between supply and demand is big, high external dependency, the contradiction with economic development become more and more tense. Therefore, predicting of important mineral resources consumption and knowing the application scope and quantity, can not only plan the domestic and foreign resources reasonably, and also prompt the reasonable exploitation and utilization of the important mineral resources, which has very important significance to built conservation-minded society and establish the sustainable development strategy.The dissertation is based on the consumption prediction of important mineral resources. First of all, the development situation and the supply and demand at home and abroad of the important mineral resources, such as Cu, Ni and PGE, are analysed. On the basis of the analysis of the importance of important mineral resources for economic development, the factors affecting the important mineral resources demand are discussed in detail. And then, the theory of system dynamics model is studied and take the platinum as an example for empirical research. Using the system dynamics model, the entire minerals, from the production, supply and consumption, are analysed predicted. In the consumption link, we mainly aimed at the platinum’s eight terminal consumption field and obtained the final prediction results. According to the prediction results, the economic growth is the main influence factor for the platinum consumption. In the next period of time, platinum consumption in the eight terminal fields will gradually rise and the jewelry consumption increasing amplitude is the largest. On the whole, the platinum consumption is still greater than the available supply, therefore, we need to increase imports of platinum resources, and need to rely on the scientific method to improve the platinum grade, improve the recycling level and develop alternative resources promotion, and so on. Finally, we summarized the main work of this dissertation and gave some countermeasures for the development of mineral resources in China. The main work and innovations of this dissertation are as follows:1) Based on the investigation and collection of information for the development situation and the supply and demand at home and abroad of the important mineral resources such as Cu, Ni and PGE, the existing problems in the development of important mineral resources in China are summarized.2) The demand theory and method for mineral resources are studied and the specific factors influencing mineral demand are analyzed. On this basis, the actual terminal consumption areas of platinum are analyzed in detail.3) With platinum group element of platinum as an example, the terminal consumption data are collected and analyzed. Using the system dynamics model, the terminal consumption are predicted, which provides an important basis for our platinum resources rational utilization and development. And the same time, the prediction method and technology has important application value in the similar terminal consumption forecast of mineral resources.4) The consumption of platinum under different economic development model in our country are predicted and analyzed by adopting the method of scene simulation. And some development strategies are given for the development of mineral resources in China.