A Study On Export Fluctuations Of Chinese Pork

China is the primary pork production country in the world these years, but itsexport is not so pleasant, with characteristics of low export rate, poor competitiveness,large and frequent fluctuation, which has seriously damaged the interests of farmersand the breeding industry, and exerted a great effect on the healthy development ofChina’s pig-raising industry. In this context, to study the export fluctuations of China’spork and its influencing factors and explore the means of how to enhance thecompetitiveness of China’s pork industry and guard against the risk of exportfluctuation is not only beneficial to the development of China’s pork corporations, butalso conducive to the healthy development of China’s pork industry and improvementof farmers’ income.This study, in accordance with the HS1992six-digit code, gives a redefinition ofpork products, and classifies them into fresh and frosted pork, frozen pork andprocessed pork in terms of their characteristics. It analyzes the export scale of China’spork, its prices, product structure and changes of market structure in the years of1995to2010, which is divided into four periods according to the fluctuation of export scale,1995-2000,2001-2006,2007-2008and2009-2010respectively. This study givesdivisions of China’s pork export markets into Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, Kyrgyzstan,Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Russia, North Korea and other markets of the worldaccording to their characteristics of export market structure.This study, starting from the analysis on export fluctuations of China’s pork,builds an analytical framework for the export fluctuation of China’s pork productsbased on previous research results. In this framework, it uses the tools of market shareindex (MS), revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and trade competitivenessindex(TC) to measure the export competitiveness of China’s pork products, make acomparison with the major port exporting countries of the world, and analyze theinfluence of China’s pork competitiveness on China’s export fluctuation. Then, fromthe perspective of scale and structure, this research gives an analysis on the demandconditions and fluctuations of domestic market and major export markets of China’spork, especially, which is focused on the analysis of those influences on the volatilityof China’s pork exportation. This study builds a completely Constant Market Sharemodel (CMS model) on the basis of the previous analysis. This model has deeplyanalyzed the structural effects, competition effects, the second-order effect and itsdecomposition results of fluctuations in China’s pork exportation during1995-2010.The decomposition results of the CMS model shows that changes in competitivenessare the main factors to the fluctuations of China’s pork exports for this period,followed by the fluctuations of import demand, then the influence of the static anddynamic structure of export products. The overly concentrated market structure alsoexerts negative effects on China’s pork export fluctuations. From the perspective ofthese four periods’ fluctuations, it can easily see the factors and their impacts toexport fluctuations of China’s pork are different. Finally, it draws the mainconclusions of this study, and puts forward suggestions to enhance our pork export competitiveness and strategies to prevent the export fluctuations.