Research On Control Model Of Pork Supply And Demand Co-ordination And Its Application

The steady development of pig industry not only can promote the development of the agriculture,animal husbandry,increase the farmers' income and optimize agricultural resources allocation,but also has a very important position in the whole national economy.However,the development of China's pig industry faced with many risks,include of disease risk,pollution risk,the risk of food safety and market fluctuant risk now.In these risks,the market fluctuant risk has been clearly listed the most important issues in the China pig industry.Literature research,systems analysis,the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis were adopted in this research.By using the econometrics,the statistical analysis method,forecasting theory,optimization theory,population forecast theory,the problems,including the existing research methods of Pork supply and demand balance,pork supply forecast model,time series prediction based on BP neural network problems,pork demand forecasting,pork supply and demand balance control model and its solving method and the application of pork supply and demand balance control system,are system researched in the paper.The concrete research contents are as follows:(1)Pork supply forecasting modelThis part is the foundation of the research.The details are as follows:Combined with pig production cycle and the different growth stage of pig.There are these realaations:The pork supply of one period is determined by the number of pigs in current market,the number of pigs in market is determined by the number of growing pigs,the number of rowing pigs is determined by the number of piglet early,and the number of piglets are determined by the number of sows.Live pig supply forecast model was constructed base on the relations of different stages of pigs.(2)Pork demand forecastThis part is the premise of the research.The details are as follows:combining with the historical data,Per capita demands for pork in Heilongjiang from 2016 to 2018 were forecasted by using An improved time series prediction method based on BP neural network According to the result of per capita pork demand forecast and the population we have forecasted,the total annual demands of pork in Heilongjiang from 2016 to 2018 were calculated finally.In the case of annually pork demand is known,monthly pork demand in the future were calculated by using the seasonal cycle prediction method.(3)Pork supply and demand balance regulation modelThis part is the core of the research.Under the premise of the steady demand,regulating and stabilizing the pork supply is the core of regulatory policy.The sum of demand and supply's difference squares was the objective function,Pork supply regulation model belongs to the multivariate nonlinear unconstrained optimization model.The improved real genetic algorithm was adopted,to resolve the regulation model.As an example,pork supply and demand balance control model was used in Heilongjiang province finally.Through the research of these questions,The main research results we achieved are as follows:(1)We analyzed and synthesized the existing research methods of pork supply and demand balance.The shortage of the the existing research methods were pointed out.(2)The control theory and Prediction theory of population and method is introduced into the study of the pork supply and demand balance,The ideas and methods in the research were innovated.According to the forecast of population control theory,The Strategy that the pork supply in the future can be controlled by controlling the number of sows.And according to the method of prediction theory and method of population control,The pork supply forecast model were deduced and built.Put forward the method from that we get the model parameters.(3)An improved time series prediction method based on BP neural network was given in this paper.Pork demand for 36 months in Heilongjiang province was predicted by using the method.(4)According the control theory,the sum of demand and every month's supply's difference squares was the objective function,the pork demand and supply control model was established.pork demand and supply regulation model belongs to the multivariate nonlinear unconstrained optimization model.(5)A real genetic algorithm was applied,to solved the pork demand and supply regulation model that is a multivariate nonlinear unconstrained optimization model,Various operating methods and models were given.(6)As an example of the pork demand and supply regulation in Heilongjiang,the theory basis of pork supply regulation in Heilongjiang was given.The study of pork demand and supply regulation opened up a new perspective,Enriched and perfected the content of the problem of pork demand and supply.There were very important theoretical significance.The pork demand and supply regulation model can directed the government to regulate the pork supply effectively,ensure the balance between supply and demand pork,Prevent the risks of pork price fluctuations in advance.There is an important practical significance for Increasing farmers' income and stabilizing the people's life.