Rice Price, Rice Economic Performance Evaluation And The Government Grain Policy Options

Rice is one of the main food crops in China, and its production and quality determine the food security and economic security of our country. After the change of extensive manual cultivation to modern mode of production based on science, technology and mechanization, plant efficiency and yield are also gradually optimized and improved. Under the background of emphasising on food security, rice price and economic operation have interaction relationship between inflation, which has a critical influence on people’s livelihood and other industries as well as the steady development of the economy as a whole, In this paper I will use rice price, factors affecting the rice planting and production process, the government policy path layers of in-depth analysis, finally get the rice economic operation mechanism and what the government should take as the conclusions and policy recommendations.This article is based on the high-frequency data of rice price and investigation data of900rice farmers in Suizhou, Wuxue and Xiaogan of Hubei province, and established some econometric models based on the descriptive statistics in sample production input and output data of farmers. This article main research conclusios are as follows:1, For the rice price, agricultural output and inflation in China, there is a dynamic equilibrium relationship between rice price and inflation, the influence of inflation on rice price is obvious in the long run, and the rice price effects the inflation on the more existing in the short term.2^For rice farmers production and economic performance, the biggest influencing factor is rice unit yield, followed by planting area; national policy economic performance has a significant effect on the rice production; farming population and per capita income of farmers economic performance have a significant effect, too. Rice farmers production efficiency exists regional differences, region production efficiency of Suizhou is higher, production efficiency of Wuxue and Xiaogan are relatively low; vector error correction model research results confirmed that the grain purchase price and subsidy policies are still the important factors which affect the rice production efficiency. As the elements respects, pesticides, fertilizers and other basic elements and human, mechanical power input are the key impact factors of rice cultivation efficiency.3> Government productive expenditure has certain effectiveness to the rice farmers welfare level, but the assembly size may lead to a decline in rice farmers real earnings and damage to the welfare. Government effective stability of rice production elements price regulation policy is most conducive to raise the level of welfare, if use subsidies and price controls at the same time, it will be more intense affected by inflation and depreciation rate change, the situation will be more complex, and can’t achieve the goal of maximization rice farmers welfare level.Breaking through the single factor analysis, this study focuses on economic variables dynamic analysis, factor analysis, and combines with numerical simulation and optimization analysis, to seek the relationship between variables and policy simulation, to study rice economic performance and the government policy, and do more in-depth exploration as well.