| China is a large agricultural country with obvious advantages in food status,and food is the basis for maintaining biological life activities and is indispensable in daily life.In recent years,due to global warming,social and economic development,and scientific and technological progress,the fluctuations in the price of the Chinese rice market will affect the economic development of society and the entire country.Therefore,the basic stability of rice market prices is conducive to promoting the development of the rice industry in China and ensuring China’s food security.Effective price prediction can help relevant personnel make correct judgments and choices,so it is necessary to choose the appropriate forecasting model.In addition,the production and cultivation of rice has a strong regional character.Therefore,a spatial study of its market price can deeply understand the relevant layout of the rice industry in China,and it has an important role in promoting the development of the rice industry and the formulation of national policies.At present,the research on grain prices mainly focuses on the research on the characteristics of grain price fluctuations,the factors affecting grain prices,and the research on grain price prediction.This article mainly takes the market price of Chinese rice as the research object,and uses the Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and filter analysis method to analyze the time characteristics of the market price of rice.Then use the spatial analysis method to analyze the spatial characteristics of rice market price in China,and get what kind of characteristics of the rice market price in China.Finally,the gray correlation analysis method is used to sort the selected impact factors by period and overall ranking and strength evaluation,and then the DEMATEL(Decision Laboratory Analysis)method is used to explore the various impact factors that affect the price change of the rice market.(1)From the perspective of time,the volatility trend of China’s rice market price after deduction and inflation deduction from 2006 to 2015 is relatively consistent: that is,it is generally rising,and can be divided into three stages: 2006-2009 is the first At this stage,the trend is slowly rising;2010-2012 is the second stage,and its trend is obviously rising;the last stage is from 2013 to 2015.At this stage,the market price of rice has gradually stabilized.Through seasonal index adjustment and filtering analysis,the market price of rice in China has seasonal and cyclical characteristics,and large fluctuations occur in January and July each year.Judging from the decomposed cyclic fluctuation trend chart,the market price of rice in China will fluctuate because of special events,and the market price characteristics of the three major planting production areas in China over time are consistent with the overall trend.(2)From the perspective of space,the high-price areas of China’s rice market prices from 2006 to 2015 were mainly concentrated in the northern region,while the low-price areas were more concentrated in Shanghai,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu in eastern China,that is,eastern China.The market price of the bazaar has an inverted "U" distribution in the east-west direction,and the north-south high-south distribution in the north-south direction.After analysis of spatial autocorrelation,the price of rice fair market in China presents the characteristics of spatial agglomeration.Finally,according to the results of the network topology map,the closer the provinces with close geographical locations ar e,the more spatially connected they are.(3)From the analysis of influencing factors,the rice market price is affected by many factors such as natural factors,international factors,technological factors,demand factors,supply(market)factors,economic factors,substitute prices,etc.,and these influencing factors will also affect each other internally.influences.Judging from the results of the ranking of the three stages of 2006-2009,2010-2012,2013-2015 and the overall grey correlation of 2006-2015,the most important influencing factors are International factors(exchange rate,rice imports)and supply(market)factors(rice cost);strong correlation results show that,except for the weakest correlation of GDP,the remaining influencing factors are all strong correlation;It can be seen that the exchange rate,the import volume of rice,and the cost of rice have the greatest impact on the market price of Chinese rice,while the impact on GDP is the least.From the perspective of impact,the incr ease or decrease in GDP will not have a significant impact on the market price of rice.However,changes in the rice market price will definitely affect GDP;the centrality results show that the three important factors of rice imports,exchange rates,and the total area affected by the planting industry are very important.The changes in rice market prices are closely related to them. |
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