| A real estate market in harmony with economic development should be healthy, stable and boosting economic growth. The combination analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative such as the statistical methods, econometric methods was employed to determine the stability of the real estate market in Yunnan Province (periodic), and the effect of economic growth; because of the importance of the real estate industry in the economic development of Yunnan Province. In this paper, the evaluation of health level in the real estate industry for Yunnan by the foam analysis, and analyzes the factors affecting the healthy and steady development of real estate industry are analyzed.Firstly, this paper discusses the operational cycle of real estate industry in Yunnan from1996to2012, using the single indicator method, multiple index method based on principal component synthesis and analyzes the real estate cycle and macroeconomic volatility. The results show that as follow:(1) the real estate cycle is closely related to the macroeconomic, its recovery and prosperity is fast than the economic growth cycle, the recession lags behind the economic cycle;(2) the fluctuations in the real estate cycle in Yunnan Province by the national macro-control policy is more obvious, the current responsed by encouraging policy and responsed inhibition policy lag one to two;(3)before2009, the crest of the real estate cycle in Yunnan and the country’s real estate cycle synchronization arrived at the same time, the trough of the province lags behind the national for one year, after2009, the trough lags behind the nation for one year.Secondly, the VAR model, regression analysis and Granger causality test is employed to study the relationship between real estate industry and the economic growth of Yunnan. It is showed that the two are positive influence on each other Granger causality between the maximum effect lag three quarters; the investment for every one percentage point increase, stimulating economic growth with0.496percentage points.Again, This paper uses the related data from1996to2012to anaysis the foam accounted for the five indicators of real estate investment intensity of Kunming, Yunnan and the country’s real estate. The study revealed that the real estate industry in Yunnan Province,1996-2012overall was more health better than the national, there is the bubble for the provincial capital city of Kunming real estate market in some years. Housing rental ratio in the determination of indicators, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is employed to research and compare the real estate bubble in Kunming vertical and horizontal and made their cause analysis.Finally, the results of real estate market in Yunnan on the importance of economic development, interactive relationship are summarized, and policy recommendations are given to promote the coordinated development. |
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