The Study Of Real-estate Bubble In China

The real estate industry in china has come into a new stage of continuous development, since 1998, when the Chinese housing system is coming into progress, especially along with the end of the welfare allocating houses, and the beginning of the housing commercialization. In the mean time, the price of the real estate has rapidly risen up. There are so many arguments about the real-estate bubble in our country, but there are no obvious conclusions. On the basis of collection of the information on the real estate bubbles from the home and abroad, this dissertation makes it clear that there is real-estate bubble in part of our country, this dissertation opens out the risk and harm of the real-estate bubble nationally, this dissertation puts forward relevant warning forecast and preventing countermeasures. The main content as follows:First of all, this dissertation comes out the connotation of real-estate bubble and it's characteristic. Then this dissertation introduces arguments about real-estate bubble. On the basis of expounding "bubble" and "no-bubble", this dissertation impersonal evaluates the double-viewpoints.Secondly, this dissertation takes apart in-depth the causes and the basic characteristic of Shanghai real-estate bubble in 1999 ~ 2004 through assaying real-estate cycle, real-estate investment, lending proportion in real-estate and the ratio of the price of houses to income. This dissertation thinks that there is real-estate bubble in part of our country through assaying real-estate cycle, cycle index of country house, price index of real-estate, real-estate investment, lending proportion in real-estate and the ratio of the price of houses to income. This dissertation assays the cause of formation , and harm of real-estate bubbles.Finally, this dissertation establishes predicting and preventing system to prevent real-estate bubble. On the basis of assaying existing real-estate bubble warning forecast index system, analyzing the method of testing real-estate bubble, and analyzing the real-estate bubble warning system, this dissertation constructs our own real-estate bubble warning forecast index system. This dissertation expounds a series of methods to clear off the real-estate bubble, such as enhancing the construction of tax, enhancing the management of loan, making investment structure of the real-estate better, establishing the public message system of bulletin frequently, developing economy and increasing the income of denizen,using multi-measures to restrain speculation in the real estate market .There are two innovations in this dissertation. The first one, this dissertation assays the real-estate market combining with the development phase (the real-estate cycle).The second one, this dissertation confirms quantitative analytic indexes in terms of real-estate bubble characteristic. The same data about the real-estate investment, the lending of the real-estate corporation, and the ratio of the price of houses to income demonstrates different problems in the different phase of the real-estate cycle. Because the real-estate characteristic include, the price of house continuously and overly increasing, the ratio of the real-estate investment to fixed assets investment higher, the lending of the real-estate corporation larger, the price of houses to income higher, this dissertation diagnoses the real-estate bubble through assaying quantificational indexes such as the price of house, the real-estate investment, and the ratio of the real-estate investment to fixed assets investment. The dissertation thinks that there is serious real-estate bubble in part of our country and designs the warning forecast and preventing system because of the great potential tendency of real-estate bubble. All of these are important innovations of this dissertation.