The Research On Expressway Operation Benefit And Sensitivity Analysis Base On Monte Carlo

In recent years with increasing of expressway investment, the degree of operating mileage of expressway substantial increase year by year, followed by evaluation work progressed, operational efficiency was evaluated as one of the topics. Because the expressway operating environment complexity and particularity of itself, more and more uncertainty affect the operational efficiency, resulting in the construction of investment risk will increase. Therefore, the rapid development of the expressway today, how to conduct risk identification and assessment of operational efficiency and effectively control the risk and take appropriate measures to strengthen the operational management to maximize economic and social benefits become Transportation Divination problem to be solved is that all investors and the whole hot issues of social concern. This paper attempts to operational effectiveness expressway sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, get operational efficiency evaluation and evaluation of the probability distribution on the degree of sensitivity of the uncertainty for expressway investment decision-making and operational management to provide a reference.This paper starting from uncertainties and risks linked departure, first carries out operational efficiency factors analysis, research analysis the uncertainties of operational efficiency, and carried out the analysis based on the main factors of uncertainty operational efficiency grading; followes by analysis of the operational effectiveness uncertainties advantages and disadvantages of the traditional method of sensitivity analysis, proposes probabilistic analysis improvements for sensitivity analysis; then studies the basic steps of Monte Carlo simulation theory applied to operational efficiency sensitivity analysis and determines the operational effectiveness of the random variable selection methods and probability distributions, as well as the sensitivity based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient solving method to construct a standardized model of the sensitivity coefficients; Finally, combines with the theoretical approach and the XinYuan Expressway’s actual situation of the empirical checking, calculates XinYuan Expressway operator probability distribution of net present value and net present value of each uncertainty degree of sensitivity analysis results can be up to the XinYuan Expressway operation and management decision-making reference. This paper focuses on the Monte Carlo simulation method spplied to operational efficiency sensitivity analysis, this theory and methods is still in the exploratory stage, aims to improve the understanding of operational efficiency of the uncertainty analysis,and to provide more scientific and rational way, and used to guide practice.