Research On Shaanxi’s Collaborative Development Measurement And Implementation Methods Of Industrialization Urbanization And Agro-modernization

Promoting agricultural modernization synchronously with the development ofindustrialization and urbanization(triple-modernization) is clearly proposed at the FifthPlenum of the17th CPC Central Committee according to the reality that the development ofagricultural modernization seriously lags behind the industrialization and urbanizationdevelopment, which is the CPC Central Committee’s scientific grasp of China’s economic andsocial development stage and the tasks in the process and is also the profound understandingof the relation of industry and agriculture and the urban-rural relation under the new situation.Shaanxi has become increasingly important in the national and regional economic strategicplan of development with the implement of Western Development Strategy, especially withthe establishment of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region. However, unbalanced,uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions exsit during the economic development inShaanxi Province, and big differences do exist in the levels of industrialization, urbanization,agricultural modernization development. As “triple-modernizaion” interacts and complementswith each other, any "short board" of them will affect the overall situation of economic andsocial developments, resulting in unsustainable developments of“triple-modernizaion”.Therefore, it is of great significance to promote the economic andsocial development of Shaanxi in a sustainable and healthy way by revealing the currentsituation of “triple-modernizaion” development and finding problems in the process, andexploring the path to the collaborative development.To identify the dynamic relationships among industrialization, urbanization andagro-modernization in Shaanxi Province, the research uses Johansen cointegration test and theError Correction Model to analyze the data related in Shaanxi Province from1991to2010onthe basis of the exsisting research achievements both in China and aboard. Thenindustrialization, urbanization and agro-modernization are regarded as subsystems in the“triple-modernization” system and then Data Envelope Analysis is applied to compute thecooperation degree and development degree. According to the results of coordinateddevelopment and the evaluation criterions, we analyze the state of the cooperative development in the cities of Shaanxi Province on the basis of the facts of social and economicdevelopment in Shaanxi Province and its different areas.Finally,learning from experiences ofdealing with “triple-modernization”in western countries, the paper tries to explore ShaanxiProvince the path to “triple-modernization” collaborative development from the provincialand regional levels.The main results of the research are as follows:First, from1991to2010,"triple-modernizations" in Shaanxi Province arecointegratedly related in long term and their development trends are in the same direction;while in the short run, the development of industrialization and ago-modernization areopposite to urbanization; Impulse response analysis shows that the positive impact ofindustrialization and agricultural modernization to urbanization is small and unsustainable;and variance decomposition analysis indicates that the development of industrializationcontributes more to Shaanxi’s urbanization than agro-modernization.Second, the average degree of "triple-modernizaion" coordinated development ofShaanxi Province is0.782in2011, which is in the intermediate level of coordinateddevelopment.But big differences exsit in different regions and the development is unbalanced.The industrialization and urbanization in Shaanxi Province are in the verge of the offset phase,industrialization and agricultural modernization in the stage of mild disorders, andurbanization and agricultural modernization in barely coordination phase.Third, from the provincial level the provincial government should timely adjust andoptimize the industrial structure, stick to the road of new industrialization, improve the urbansystem and strengthen the planning and policy of modern agricultural development topromote the collaborative development of "triple-modernization" in Shaanxi. As to differenttypes of development zone, the key to find the proper development path is to focuse onenhancing the "short board” with their own comparative advantages.