Research On Risk Evaluation And Rate-making Of Rice Porduction In Guangdong

As one of the districts where natural disasters happen at a high frequency in China, Guang Dong isunder the burden of losing12billion of economic losses each year. And at the same time, agricultureinsurance has not played the critical role of recovering agricultural production, promoting thedevelopment of agricultural economics, safeguarding the living safety of famers here, compared withJiangsu and Zhejiang province, though Guang Dong is on the top9of grain production in China. Thisthesis studied the rice insurance from3aspects: the evaluation of rice production risk, rice insuranceregionalization and premium of rice insurance.First, the risk evaluation section has been completed in the normal form guidance of per unit areayield-trend-fluctuation-assessment. In the first step, line moving average method has been taken intouse to get the trend and fluctuation of per unit area yield. And then, non-parametric model ofinformation diffusion has been applied to assess the production risk. The research results showed that:(1) rice production risk is various and the risk degrees vary a lot from one place to another, example: thepossibility to loss more than10%of rice yield for Zhangmen and Zhanjiang are0.103917and0.084829,but for Guangzhou it’s only0.030074;(2) the probability of los ing more than10%for unit areaproduction is quite small;(3) the loss risk of each unit area of early rice is much lower than that of laterice.Second, based on risk evaluation and guided by theories of risk diversification, the exchange priceand agricultural meteorology, the insurance zoning section had been accomplished. During this part,11factors like the effective rate of irrigation, the yield rate of drought and flood, the annual averagetemperature, the annual sunshine duration, yield coefficient of variation, probability per unit area yieldloss of more than5%, probability per unit area yield loss of more than10%had been taken into accountin the application of factor analysis and cluster analysis. According to the ranking list of thecomprehensive scores, the20districts where rice is cultivated had been divided into5different degreesof production risk. They are low risk areas, little-low risk areas, general risk areas, little-high risk areasand the research had showed that for the rice production risk degree, the Pearl River Delta Region is thelower compared with the north area, but the east and coastal region of Guang Dong rank the top of thelist.Finally, the pure premium rates were got according the different distributions for the loss ratio ofthe early and late rice in the different zones. In the procedure of model building, model test andempirical research, the most suitable distribution model for early rice and late rice of each municipalityhad been chosen from more than40distributions of@Risk.The pure insurance rates for early rice andlate rice of each municipality had been calculated by the programming via Matlab. It showed that likethe result of insurance zoning the pure rates were the highest in coastal region such as Zhan Jiang, ZhuHai, Shan Tou and so on compared with the North region and the Pearl River Delta Region. Furthermore, it was the lowest in the Pearl River Delta Region.To summary the whole study, we get the following to conclusions: firstly, the pure rate of rice insurance ranges from1.5%to2.5%and the insured production ranges from300kg to400kg per mu.Further more, the pure rate and insurance production are quite different among tdifferent districts inGuangdong. Secondly, for the running of the insuance company, the insurance rate should be different indifferent regions and rice cultivated in different seasons in accordance with the risk ranks.