Local Government Financing Demand Analysis Of Highway Construction

With the rapid development of China’s national economic and social production, underthe environment of the country further on the three industries upgrading and updatingconstantly adjust the industrial structure and layout, China’s road transport as the basis for thedevelopment of three major industries, transport facilities,status should not be overlooked inthe future economic development of local governments to increase the construction of localroad transport, aimed at improving the local road network, and promote regional economiccooperation and development of the province and neighboring provinces of local roads in thefuture financing of the construction of transportationdemand further increase. Future localgovernment how to reasonably predict the amount of highway construction financing, therebyreducing financing costs, reduce the burden of government debt is the focus of localgovernment financing process.In this context, this paper aims percentage of revenue method and linear regressionprediction analysis through the use of multi-scenario prediction method, the income andexpenditure data to Northwest China A Provincial Department of Transportation, theestablishment of a multi-scenario projected total model, improve the percentage of revenuemethod and linear regression prediction analysis model of the multi-scenario predictionmethod to predict exactly A Province from2011to2015the amount of financing required forthe construction of road transport, and finally the use of interval estimation method of thepredictable financing volume correction, resulting in a more comprehensive and predictivevalue, and then by the vector comparative analysis, to test the predictive value of theamended financing, the combined percentage of revenue in the validation of themulti-scenario prediction method and linear regression prediction, the prediction of theamount of highway construction financing to establish the validity of the model, andultimately determine the a,2011-2015, a more realistic amount of financing.In this paper, a combination of quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods,designed to provide more reasonable and optimization of local government financing of construction of road traffic volume of financing forecasting methods, and put forwardpractical suggestions and comments.