The Study Of Convergence Of Regional Economic Growth Based On Spatial Spillovers Effects

The question about whether convergence exists is often discussed by economists recently.The reason is not only that reduction of economic gap among districts is strongly demanded,but also that there are theoretically discussion about convergence. Neoclassical growth theorywhich is represented by Keynes holds the view that any economy will eventually converge toa "steady state" level and a country,s per capital growth rate will be equal to zero finally. Butendogenous growth theory has explained that convergence dosen,t exist because the economicwill achieve sustained economic growth due to endogenous elements promoting growth.Although economic discrepancy extension, which exists over a long period of time andexpands continuously in the region, is hard to avoid during the economic development, it willnot only effect whole commercial efficiency, but also be disadvantageous to the social welfarefacility and social harmony. How explain along with the economic growth, the economicdiscrepancy between zones continuously expands, which has been the hot spot question ofeconomic growth theory research.In this paper, combing the research status and economic convergence theory based on thestatus of the five northwestern provinces regional economic convergence analysis resultsshowed that:(1) The cities of five northwestern provinces of regional economic growth ratehad a spatial dependence, which had the stronger relationship and the more neighboring city.Simultaneously,350kilometers geographic distance had a significant special spillovers effect,with the distance of the adjacent areas are expanding, the special spillover effect graduallybecame weaken. Five northwestern provinces existed convergence trend in the entire1990-2010period, and it still existed that convergence when we began to local analysis bydivided in three stages for the entire time period of the five northwestern provinces.(2) Special spillovers effects of the region’s economic growth in five northwesternprovinces was conducted mainly through the neighbor region immediately shock. In otherwords, if the region in the initial stages was adjacent to the region of the high level of percapita income, then there would be a higher rate of economic growth; Conversely, if theregion in the initial stage was adjacent to the area of the low level of per capita income, then,late economic growth rate was lower. The neighbor region’s economic development directlyaffected adjacent areas economic development. There was exist absolutely convergen of theregional economic development of the five northwestern provinces in the1990to2010period, and the convergence rate was relatively stable, economic growth gap converges to a stablestate; The economic development existed conditional convergence trend after joiningcontrol variables of the stock of human capital, the degree of market-oriented, industrialstructure, financial expenditure and capital savings rate in the region of five northwesternprovinces in the period of1990-1995,1995-2000,2000-2005and2005-2010.(3) There is an analysis found that within the region of the five northwestern provincesareas exists club convergence after dividing the whole area to the core region and theperipheral areas, and the convergence rate of the core area had increased annually at the rateof5percent in the end of2010, and the state of convergence was relatively stable, but theperipheral region was always in a divergent state. In accordance with the cross-sectionalanalysis of the period from1995to2000, the region’s economic development of the fivenorthwestern provinces was divergence and did not exist the club convergence phenomenon.In the remaining three cross-section peiods, the core area had been in a state of the economicconvergence, and the convergence rate was always maintained about at4%-5%, otherwisethe peripheral region had been in a divergent state. Finally, we found the convergencemechanism through the analysis of these influence factors factor of affecting the economicconvergence and put forward policy recommendations in order to promoting the effectivedevelopment of the regional economy of the five northwestern provinces.