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Study On The Industrial Structure Optimization And Adjustment In Shanxi Province

Posted on:2015-03-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y J LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330422969547Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
This paper foresees and outlooks the development trend of production value structureand labour structure from the point of view of optimal disposal by the method of GreyDynamic Liner Programming.The results of foecasts reveal that the proportion of gross valueadded of the secondary industry continues to raise.At the same time, the proportion of grossvalue added of the third industry continues to decrease.It can tell that to some degree the rapiddevelopment of the secondary industry holds down the development of the third industry.Inother words,their developments are not based on interactive development. In employmentterms, the proportion of employment added of the secondary industry increases slightly.Onthe contrary, the proportion of employment added of the third industry increses rapidly.At thesame time, the third industry has become the main industry in absorbing the first industrialsurplus labor.It can be learned from the depature degree of structure that the depature degreeof the first and third industry is negetive.Only the depature degree of the secondary industry ispositive.It can be considered to develop these sector or industry that can promote theemployment of the second industry.Only by doing this can make the second industrialstructure more reasonable.Based on the results of the study,this paper establishes a model to analysis theemployment affecting factor.The four factors are the depature degree of structure,employmentelasticity,labour productivity, wage level. Comprehensive evaluation model evaluate theability of employment within the industry.In the meantime, the employment elasticity ofinfluence to the second industry employment is the largest of the four factors by regressionanalysis.The second is the deviation of structure.I can get the final results through analysisingthese factors.(1)Equipment manufacturing industry such as manufacture of computers and otherequipment, specialized equipment manufacturing,general equipment manufacturing, foodmanufacturers, gas production and supply industry belong to emerging industries of the development priorities of the12th five-year plan in Shanxi Province.The rapid developmentof these industries will give a boost to employment in the area.(2)Ferrous metals mining and dressing, coal mining and washing industry, theproduction and supply industry of power and heat,non-ferrous metals mining and dressing,ferrous metal smelting belong to the leading industry of Shanxi Province. These are labourintensive labour, low skilled processes that allow us to employ a large number of local peopleor soak up surplus rural farm labor.In order to solve the problem that the third industrial output value is low and promote thetransformation and upgrading of the second industry industry. Firstly,this paper evaluates thedevelopment of industry, the construction industry and producer service.The final evaluationresults show emerging and productive service industry underdeveloped.Secondly this paperstudies the integration development of productive service industry and manufacturing industry.Productive service industry and manufacturing industry do not have apparent interactiverelationship.In the short time, manufacturing industry promote the development of productiveservice industry slightly.In the long run,it’s needed to vigorously develop producer services toinstall wings and head that enable the take-off of sustainable development of manufacturingindustry. Lastly,this paper studies the relationship between manufacturing industry andproducer service industry using grey interconnect degree analysis.It can be concluded thatnon-fabricated metals,plastic industry, tobacco industry, transport equipment are most close toproductive service. But leather; furs and related products, manufacture of penny, vines coir,manufacture of computers and electronic equipment are not close to productive service.In theend,this paper give specific analysis and suggestion.
Keywords/Search Tags:Grey Dynamic Liner Programming, departure degree of structure, granger causality test, grey relational analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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