Household Energy Consumption Analysis Of Evolution Track The Process Of Urbanization

This paper delved into Chinese household energy demand evolution path. With human engineering as the analytical theoretical basis, energy demand is divided into three categories:life maintain, spirit maintain, and environment maintain. But the structure of changing energy demand is not explicit. We introduce LUX (unit living area light intensity) as the uniqueness index into analytical framework. According to the ergonomics theory, we put xi’an city and the surrounding areas of family as samples, adopt the field observation and questionnaire research. The results show that energy demand presents three evolution states:rural, suburbs and city. The energy demand consumption present "J" shape. From macro-perspective, this change, however, comes from energy demand preference. In this paper, we establish VAR model to study the issue of household energy consumption (HEC) in China with status quo analysis of that from1980to2009. Firstly, based on the previous literature of domestic and foreign, the main factors affecting HEC are derived. Besides, result from testing suggests that consuming capacity, population and structure are the leading power to determine HEC. Further, BVAR model is also introduced into the analytical framework to overcome the exceeding sample-size and overfitting existing in VAR. What’s more, changes in energy consumption in the period of "the12th five year plan" are forecasted that way; meanwhile, we do the same work via ARIMA with the historical data information itself. At the end of this analysis, comparison is made between the results from both the BVAR and ARIMA models to justify the reasonableness of BVAR in this paper.