Research On Risk Management Of Real Estate Appraisal

The real estate industry plays an important role in national economy. In recentyears, with the rapid development of real estate market, the portfolio of real estateappraisal is aggrandizing, and remarkable achievements have been made in the realestate appraisal industry. But at the same time, there are more and more disputesbecause of the inaccuracy of the evaluation results. Therefore, risk in real estateevaluation is a big issue and could not be ignored.As a new developing science of management, the risk management theory isabout the law of the occurrence of risk and risk control, and it has been applied todifferent fields. Some academics have made some exploration of risk management ofreal estate appraisal. But on the whole, the research on risk management of real estateappraisal only belongs to the preliminary stage.In order to solve the problems in the field of real estate valuation, such as lack ofbasic data, serious influence by the subjective factors, serious loss of information inthe evaluation process and so on, the following work has been done in this thesis:Firstly, based on the basic theory of real estate appraisal, the major factors whichaffect the real estate price are analyzed. Besides, the process of real estate appraisaland the basic steps of conventional market comparison approach are introduced.Secondly, according to the unusual properties of the real estate appraisal, whichis distinguished from work in some other fields, the risk of real estate appraisal isdefined as "uncertainty of real estate and behavior ".Furthermore, this thesis identifiesrisk factors in China’s real estate appraisal field, discusses the uncertainty of realestate appraisal and its sources, and puts forward two ways to reduce risks from theperspectives of improving precision and cognitive level.Thirdly, based on the introduction to uncertainty mathematics, this thesisexpounds the necessity and rationality of introducing grey system theory, fuzzymathematics theory and the theory of interval number into real estate appraisal. Then,taking the market comparison approach for example, from the perspectives ofimproving precision, with a view to reduce the uncertainty in the main processesincluding obtaining data sources, verifying the data validity, the exact identificationof main factors and choosing the similar real properties, interval number grey fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method of real estate appraisal is put forward, in which the uncertainty of real estate price is considered. The interval number is used in realestate appraisal for the first time. In order to keep the fuzzy features of data, directtreatment of interval-type source data is carried out, and then this thesis uses intervalnumbers instead of point value to calculate real estate price through grey relationalanalysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. An example shows that the new methodhelps reduce serious loss of information in the evaluation process and increase thecredibility of evaluation result.Finally, from the perspectives of improving cognitive level, with a view toreduce the risk from working environment which is made up of institutions, system,talents, laws and regulations and some other ones, several suggestions and measuresare proposed.