Research On The Real Estate Demand Market Based On The Grey Model

Real estate industry is a support industry in China. And residential and commercialreal estate markets are the most important sections. The influence of the residential andcommercial real estate industry on the real estate industry， associated industries，and thesocial economy are significant. This paper researches the relationship between real estatedemand and influencing factors， and according the history data to analysis the demandtrend of residential and commercial real estate market in the future. It can provide valuabletheoretical bases that government can implement macro-control policies and developerscan make efficient supply. In addition，it can guide consumer’s rational consumption.This study considers Nanjing as the research objective. It reviews the demand theoryin the general market and real estate market， and then it introduces the current conditionsof the residential and commercial real estate markets in China and Nanjing. The factorsthat influence the residential and commercial real estate markets are analyzed, finding thatthe housing prices， disposal income，GDP，and population are the quantitative factors. Inaddition， this research employs the grey relation model to research the degree ofassociation between the influencing factors and the quantity of housing demand. Then thegrey prediction model is used to predict the quantity of housing demand in the next fewyears. Lastly，this study provides a few suggestions to the government and developers onhow to stimulate the slump in the demand for residential and commercial real estate.This study suggests that GDP，the disposal income，deposit，population， per capitaresidential area and the prices are the quantitative factors. And it employs the grey relationmodel to research the degree of association between the influencing factors and thequantity of housing demand，and reveals that gets the GDP and the prices of commercialreal estate are the most critical factors that influence the quantity of housing andcommercial real estate demand respectively in Nanjing. In addition，it employs greyprediction model to forecast the quantity of demand in the two markets, and finding thatthe quantity of demand will decrease in the next three years because of increasinglyrigorous macro-control policies and reducing investment benefits.According to the findings， it provides some suggestions: firstly， the governmentshould pay attention to the social economy development in order to provide a stableeconomic background to the real estate market. Secondly， the government should controlthe prices of the commercial real estate to avoid commercial real estate bubble in the market. Thirdly， excavating the potential consumers and stimulating their purchasingdesire. Fourthly， the developers should increase the added value of the housing attractnon-local consumers. Additionally， the government and relative departments shouldstrength the monitoring of the macro economy and information communication in the realestate market.