Impact Of Delay Retirement On China’s Economic Growth Under The Background Of Aging Population

Population aging has become an unavoidable challenge to many countries. Meanwhile as the average living years last longer, postponing the retirement age has been hotly discussed. This thesis established3types of retirement age reform plan, with Prediction Model of Population, the Labor Education Recursive Model and a new Solow Economic Growth Model with human capital and population age structure, this thesis tried to find out the dynamic effects of population aging on economic from the two viewpoints——balanced economic growth path and growth, aiming to provide theoretical support for future implementation of the policy, and concluded:Firstly, the aging population in China has its own characteristics:highly growing speed, low educational attainment, poor health of older people, large geographic differences, and being old before it grows rich. Although the absolute population of people over65year old in China started to decrease since2045, but the aging rate was still rising.Secondly, in the case of other conditions remained unchanged, rate of aging and pension index have significant effects on balance path. At a rough estimate, the pension index in China is above the standard in short future, so that aging is more likely to have a negative effect on economic growth, which means retirement age reform policies which can make the percentage of people over the retirement age lower, will be better.Thirdly, delaying retirement policies do increase labor supply, but would also reduce the quality of the labor force in the short term, so the impact of ageing on economic growth in China is complex, and future economic growth in China can be divided into4stages:reducing (2015-2027), increasing (2028-2035), reducing (2036-2040), and leveling off (2041-2055). Finally, according to the above research results, in view of the aging of the population problem in China, the paper thesis suggests macroeconomic policies for China to cope with the aging problem and the development of delayed retirement policy.