The Research Of Delay Retirement Age Influence Working-age Population Employment In Our Country

From the perspective of population life expectancy,endowment insurance fund balance,effective use of human resources,reduce the burden of enterprises and maintain the gender equity and so on,delay retirement age is the inevitable trend,which is also important policy tool to solve the shortcomings in the current retirement system.But the delay retirement policy can cause different aspects of society and different levels of impact,especially a great impact on social employment.At present,foreign scholars have done a more mature and in-depth study.According to other empirical results,the rest of the world promoted the social employment by delay retirement.However there are significant differences on Chinese employment population,the education level of the employed persons,post nature of young people and old people with other countries.So we need to explore and research the influence of employment from gradual delay retirement policy,which cannot copy foreign experience.Positive research on the advantages and disadvantages about the effects of China’s progressive retirement on employment,and exploring progressive retirement policy and employment improvement direction with Chinese characteristics are important for our country’s health and stability of social development in the future.This thesis main research content is the influence of delay retirement policy and the working-age population employment,through a series of theoretical analysis and regression test to verify the existence of the "crowding out effect".Followed this train of thought,content of this thesis is divided into five chapters.The first part is introduction.Introduce the thesis research background and significance,research status at home and abroad,research ideas,content and method,the main innovation points and deficiencies.The second part is the theoretical analysis of the effect of delaying retirement on the employment of the working age population,supporting for later discussion and model theory.Introduce the labor participation rate,crowding out effect and other important concepts.Analyze the effects of the optimal retirement age and the "crowding out effect" of the delayed retirement on the employment by using the life cycle theory and the long term general equilibrium theory.The third part is the analysis of the development trend and the current situation of the population aging in China.Analyze the development trend of population aging in our country and introduce the current employment situation in China under the background of aging.At the same time,based on the above theoretical basis on our country’s labor,demand curve and supply curve are analyzed.The fourth part is the empirical analysis of the influence of the delay retirement on the employment of the working age population,forecasting the current retirement policy under the supply of working age population forecast in our country.Employment in our country can be divided into young,middle-aged and elderly group,with variables,such as labor participation rate,old-age dependency ratio to construct model,through quantitative way to further determine whether the delay retirement of the employment of the working age population will produce crowding out effect.Analyze the empirical results by using statistical methods and regression method.Finally,the conclusion of the model is that the delay in retirement policy implementation has crowding out effect on employment.There is crowding out effect on the employment of the young group,but there is no significant crowding out effect on the employment of the middle age group.In general,delaying retirement will have a significant crowding out effect on the employment of working age population,that is,there is a significant substitution relationship between the employment of the elderly and the employment of the working age population.In the fifth part,the delay retirement policy is proposed from combining delayed retirement and flexible retirement,delayed retirement differentiation promoting the employment of youth groups,optimizing the industrial structure and supporting small and medium enterprises,etc.Finally put forward the research prospects.Combined with the actual situation,develop a deferred retirement system in line with China’s national conditions.Through the reasonable arrangement of goals and steps,with the comprehensive implementation means of gradual retirement and differentiated retirement,supplemented by the national industrial optimization,entrepreneurship and other policies,we will achieve the delayed retirement policy in China gradually and smoothly.The research methods of this thesis include literature review,comparative analysis and model quantitative analysis.This thesis analysis of the current retirement age policy implementation effect,demonstration effect of delayed retirement age on the working age population,and put forward the corresponding improvement suggestions according to summarize domestic and foreign about delay retirement issues related reference data and theoretical work.List a large number of domestic and foreign statistical data,through the comparison of different angles to verify the main point of this thesis to enhance the effectiveness of the demonstration.At the same time,based on the official statistics as the data base,this thesis constructs the corresponding mathematical model,through quantitative analysis,more intuitive and detailed exposition of this thesis.In this thesis,the innovations include not only limited to describe existing analysis and conclusions of scholars both at home and abroad on the basis of theoretical models at home and abroad for reference,adopt the method of SPSS multivariate regression model analysis of delay retirement policy impact on the working age population employment in our country.But at the same time the thesis there are shortcomings.First of all,due to the limitation of data source,the span of some data is limited,cannot be completely accurate forecast and judgment;Secondly,data selection is not accurate and complete,method of analysis is yet to be more rigorous.