Study On Sustainable Development Ability Evaluation Based On PCA-DEA Method In Wuhan

Since China began implementing the "Rise of Central China" program in2004, Wuhan City has developed rapidly, which always ranked first among the central cities. Wuhan city is the largest air and land transportation hub, the industrial base and also the cultural center in central China, named a "thoroughfare of nine provinces "just right place at the right time. We can predict that demand for energy and resources will be improved in the future to support the faster socio-economic development,which may cause serious environmental pollution and ecological destruction.Urban development is a complex systems, including the sustainable development of social, economic, population, resources and ecological environment. When pursuing the rapid economic growth, we should ensure the resources must be reasonable consumed and our ecological environment must be protected well.Now Wuhan city is faced with the problem that how can achieve the coordinated development of various subsystems.Cconsidering the actual situation in Wuhan,it established a set of sustainable index system suitable for Wuhan city from the angle of input-output.The resourse usage,environmental pollution and ecological destroy were named as the input.The social development,economic growth and population growth were named as the output.Comprehensive comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of each evaluation method, we choose PCA-DEA (principal component analysis-data envelopment analysis) composite model,the input-output efficiency0represents sustainable development capacity. The economies of scale K value was studied at the same time, which stands for the relative input increment and corresponds to the ratio of the output increment to determine whether investment should be increased appropriately. The present situation and the change trend of sustainable development capacity was investigated and it was analysised in different cities in Hubei province.Sustainable development capacity was predicted and evaluation for the next decade.The results of the study has a certain guiding significance on the industrial structure adjustment and the overall urban planning of wuhan cityIn2000-2011,0is equal to one in2000,2005-2011,that means Wuhan city has achieved the optimal allocation of input and output among8years. The average0is equal to0.583in the other4years, that means Wuhan is in a bad situation.The sustainable development ability could be improved through promoting social development and economic development.In2003, K>1, the incremental percentage of the in-put was biger than the corresponding incremental relative percentage of the input-output,so the in-put had better not to increased.In the other three years,K<1,so the in-put could be increased approtiately.In spatial sequence evaluation in2010:sustainable development ability of17cities in Hubei province was divided into three categories by clustering analysis. The first categorie included12cities,such as wuhan, huangshi, tianmen and so on.whose θ is over than0.954.The sustainable development ability was strong; Jinmen and Shiyan was included in the third categorie, whose0was0.85161and0.81328,the sustainable development ability is weak.Through promoting the development of infrastructure, education and health care and other social indicators, the sustainable development ability of Shiyan could be improved. Through increasing the natural population growth rate, the sustainable development ability of Jingmen could be improved. The other three cities Xiaogan, Yichang and Xiangyang were included in the Second categorie, sustainable development ability in the a medium level. On the whole, the sustainable development ability was strong in Hubei province during, but there was a certain gap. So the regional harmonious development should be payed more attention to.Prediction results over the next decade shows that:the0was less than1only in2012,2013and2017,and the mean value of0was0.976.Through promoting the development of sinfrastructure, education and health care and other social indicatorats,the sustainable development ability could be improved.0was eaual to1in the other7years. Overall, the averages value of0was0.993.The sustainable development will be perfect in the future.