Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method Based On Contingency Plans Evaluation

Abrupt disasters usually break out with randomness, destructive characteristics. Current technology almost can not prevent the occurrence of abrupt disasters, and even not fully predict the real time and location. Therefore, in order to reduce the losses caused by the disasters, it is necessary to select the valid emergency plans. However, before you select the appropriate emergency plans, it is important to assess the emergency plan effectiveness.The purpose of the emergency plan evaluation is to improve the plans effectiveness, which includes improving the capabilities on emergency preparedness, rescue implementation, recovery and reconstruction. Given every contingency plan has some advantages, there may be some shortage. Therefore, policymakers can not through the personal speculation to make decisions. In addition, the plans can be divided into sub-plans and overall plans. This thesis analyzes the basic content of the sub-plans and total plan to study the construction of the indicators system and the evaluation of emergency plans based on multi-attribute decision making methods. The contents of this thesis are described as follows:1) Construct the emergency plans evaluation indicator system. By analyzing the construction principle of evaluation indicators system and the shortage exists in current indicators system, and then combined with the contigency plan preparation process. According to the plans’scientific, completeness, operability and flexibility, build a general contingency plan evaluation indicator system.2) Construct the contingency plan evaluation model. The integrated evaluation model is based on multiple attribute decision making method. Firstly, use the principles of rough set attribute to filter the indicators. Secondly, use AHP to determine the weight of each indicator. Thirdly, utilize the triangular fuzzy language to describe index property value. Finally, use the ideal solution to aggregate the contingency plan evaluation indicators. With a numerical example to show that the evaluation model is feasible.3) Taking an abrupt earthquake disaster from a mountainous county for example, utilize the multi-attribute decision making to assess the effectiveness of the contingency plans. The earthquake contingency plan is divided into pre-disaster preparedness, disaster executed and reconstruction. Then evaluate the sub-plans and overall plans, mutual corroboration. The results show that it is feasible to evaluate contingency plans by means of the multiple attribute decision making method in this paper.