The Research On Evaluation And Enhancement Of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity In Hefei City

The Twelfth Five-Year Plan of China clearly pointed out that according to the overall planning, rational layout, perfect functions, small and great, follow the principles of urban development the objective law, with big, medium-sized city by relying on emphasis, and gradually form the urban agglomeration, promoting the coordinated development of medium and small cities and towns. Comprehensive urban carrying capacity is not only the basis of regional economic radiation and driving force, but the comprehensive embodiment of the goal of urban construction. In consequence, urban comprehensive carrying capacity is a hotspot of many subjects such as urban economics, sociology, ecology and so on. Urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the maximam load of the city under the circumstances that there is no irreversible damages to the city, that is, the carrying capacity of the resources, ecological environment and infrastructure to the population and urban economic activities. With the rapid economic development of China for many years, urban construction have been rapidly expanding. Along with the quiken of the industrialization process and the continuous rising of urbanization level, the scale of the cities is becoming lager and lager, which brings a series of problems such as urban eongestion, resources shortage, environmental pollution and so on. These problems of economic development bring new challenges to urban comprehensive carrying capacity. The18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the overall approach for promoting economic, political, culture, social and ecological progress for the first time, which made the strategic position of ecological progress clear.Urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the most notable embodiment of the overall approach, which is of an important strategic and realistic significance in building a harmonious society in all respects. Hefei is the central city in Anhui Province whose strategic position is increasingly important with the development of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta and the deepening division of labor, the development of Hefei-Wuhu-Bengbu Comprehensive Innovation Pilot Region, the establishment of Wanjiang Demonstration Zone and the quick rise of Hefei Economic Circle. The future development challenges the resource carrying capacity and environment carrying capacity in Hefei. It is important to research on carrying capacity in Hefei as it plays an important role in promoting coordinated and sustainable development, giving full play to regional mega-cities, enhancing of radiation and the demonstration effect and driving the economic development of the whole province and the Yangtze River. In addition, it is typical, representative and referenced to choose comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei as the research object.Based on a large number of research results of urban carrying capacity, this paper made a research on urban comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei from multi-angle and multi-faceted. Firstly, the comparative analysis method of Hefei’s comprehensive carrying capacity is divided into vertical comparative analysis and lateral comparative analysis by using CCR and BCC model during the period2000-2011. Secondly, the changing trends of urban comprehensive carrying capacity efficiencies in Hefei are investigated by using Malmquist index model. Thirdly, the paper gives the qualitative analysis of influence factors, on the basis of which it uses econometric method to analysis the impact of the influence factors on comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei. The main research results of this paper include following aspects:(1)Technological Efficiencies of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei were not stable during the inspection periods. It was Scale Efficiencies that caused Hefei was not in DEA efficiencies.(2)Technological Efficiencies of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei were higher than average level of cities in Anhui Province. But propablely the standard of resources and environment management was low and factors allocation was unreasonable, which made the problems of urban comprehensive carrying capacity can’t be ignored. Total Factor Productivity of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei changing trends were not stable, which showed a general decreasing trend because there was no obvious improvement in factors allocation and utilization levels.No enhancement in Total Factor Productivity of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei was caused by low Scale efficiencies. Technological advances didn’t provide a strong motivation for the development of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei. Comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei related positively to engel coefficient of urban households, the proportion of the third industry to GDP, the proportion of total import and export volume to GDP, but negatively to disposable income of city and town residents and population density. At last, based on the above conclusions, some policy suggestions are put forward to enhance comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei from the perspective of harmonious development of natural resources, economy, society, politics, culture and ecology as a whole.