Analysis On Price And Quantity Of Global Crude Oil Market

Crude oil, as kind of most important energy, the movements of its price involve every process of our society and our world’s economics. The change of price relate to nation interest, company interest and individual interest. So the issues of how oil price is going to change become a long-standing question. But almost all of papers on this question are set up under the condition of market equilibrium. Obviously, the market’s behavior always appears in a disequilibrium situation. How to solve the disequilibrium condition issues turns into the main idea of this paper. By doing some practical research, the paper finds:(1) China’s economic growth play a big role in the world’s oil demands growth. In one hand, China should pay more attention in global market, the nation needs more rights to chaffer, in another hands, China should spend more in developing new clean energy.(2) The OECD’s member states’ economic growth takes on a negative effectiveness comparing to the growth of world’s demands.(3) Oil spot price plays the same roles in both suppler and consumer, but it could elevate the expectation of price by consumer, meanwhile the last demands play same effect.(4) Alliance of international oil importing states always overrates the price which OPEC offers, so the oil importing states should take a strong participation in world pricing process.In addition, owing to the development of computer science, more and more new modeling methods come into practice, especially for some methods based on computer simulation. The paper compares several kinds of methods which can be used to estimate the disequilibrium model, and obtains useful conclusion. It finds that when the amount of sample is relatively small, PML2estimator behaves a good estimating characteristic, when the amount of sample is quite big, all of PML2, SPML1and Ⅱ estimator behave such an exciting result. Besides, SPML1and Ⅱ estimator show excellent result when increase the times of simulation.