| With the development of the economy in China,the consumption of crude oil,which is one of the most significant resources in the world,increased rapidly.Because the limitation of domestic output of crude oil,it is necessary for China to import the fossil fuels increasingly year by year and the imported proportion was more than 60% by the year of 2014.Based on those,the importance of strategic crude oil reserve was forced and the related equipment,which can reserve 38.1 million m3 of oil,was almost constructed.It is necessary to operate the oil reserve effectively and minimize the total cost of strategic crude oil reserve.In this paper,the current situation and trend of the crude oil market were analyzed and the security and reliability of imported oil of China were studied deeply based on two factors,including the imported sources and the production of overseas projects.The relationship between commercial and strategic reserve and the oil price of WTI was studied,which proved the significance of the oil market to the strategic crude oil reserve.Considering some factors,including inventory limitation and transportation equipment,dynamic operation model of oil price and inventory was built and an effective algorithm was adopt to the model,which was computed by programing with MATLAB.The oil storage system could be operated effectively and some drawbacks could be overcame when the model mentioned in this paper was applied.An example that stimulates the specific operations of the inventory was calculated,proving the superiority of the model built in this paper and sensitivity analysis was achieved through oil price,inventory,throughput of pipeline and other factors.The situations of oil price uncertainty and inventory of uncertainty were simulated and the impacts on inventory operations were quantified.The method mentioned in this paper can provide a scientific basis and theoretical reference for the strategic crude oil reserve system. |
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