Empirical Study On Relationship Between The Regional Economic Development And Population Mobility

Since1949, the problem of population is an important factor that has been plagued China’s economic development. With the promotion of reform and opening up, the development of urban industrialization, large-scale population flow more and more profound impact on China’s economic and social changes. Tianjin as one of the four municipalities in China is defined as the center of the Bohai Economic Rim, and has important economic status in the north. In this context, it has practical significance for Tianjin’s floating population management that introduces the management and data mining technology to the study of population mobility, analysis of the relationship between population mobility and economic development and investigates the size of the floating population trends.In this paper, two tasks have been done:First of all. according to the data of Tianjin’s GDP. floating population number and total population number, using the Gray Relational Model, analysis the correlation coefficient between the number of floating population and GDP. The results showed that the number of floating population and GDP has a higher correlation coefficient which is higher than the correlation coefficient between the total population and GDP. Illustrate that population mobility has promoted the economic development of Tianjin. Based on the above conclusion, the second task is using the data mining model to predict the size of the future population mobility in Tianjin, and based on the results of this forecast, analyze what kind of impact will brought to the economic development of Tianjin, and propose appropriate policy recommendations. This paper used two different prediction methods to predict the scale of population mobility. The first one is the logistic curve model; high, medium and low three scenarios were used to fit. The high scenario’s fitting effect of the program is relatively good, predicted that the number of floating population in Tianjin in2030will reach4.98million, and no longer growing. The second method is based on the BP neural network prediction model. Through128training and learning, the expected error in a reasonable range, the prediction neural network model to be established. This method predicted that the number of floating population in Tianjin in2020will reach5.31million, and the first decline will occur in2021. Compared the two prediction models, BP neural network model’s error is relatively small, suitable as a prediction model in Tianjin.Finally, based on the results, this paper proposed the corresponding policy recommendations about the population mobility management in three areas:reform of the household registration system, strengthen social security, to build the Binhai New Area of Tianjin as a test area to attract the floating population.