Measurement Of The Extent Of The Real Estate Bubble

With our rapid economic development, Real estate in our country’s prportionmore and more big. Byall sectors of society to to pay attention to it’s social propor.At the same time is also the national economy strong development momentum of power.Due to China’s market economic system is not perfect, Is likely to be a real estatebubble, Must pay attention to the real estate industry, to prevent the occurrenceof bubbles. Since our country is not welfare housing distribution system, themonetary policy, buy a house, more and more organizations involved in real estatedevelopment in this industry, promoted the development of national economy. Butat the same time there are also many problems emerged, along with the rapid risein prices and a variety of organizations and individual investment behavior, thereis no bubble of estate has always been controversial. Due to various domesticscholars on the real estate bubble has different definition, selection ofmeasurement standards are different, the conclusions are different, however thesecontroversies have been also attracted the attention of social all circles.Ganzhou city Jiangxi province is the second largest city, located in thesouth of Jiangxi Province, east of Fujian, west of Hunan, South to Guangdong, havingimportant economic traffic status, belonging to the three line of the city, so thereal estate industry starts slow, but since2006the real estate industry hasachieved rapid development, Ganzhou from2006to2010city residential real estateprices continue to rise. Real estate bubble is associated with people’sexpectations about the price of the real estate bubble phenomenon, the measurementshould be integrated into the economic and psychological factors. In this case,based on the real estate bubble theory, through the construction of economicfundamentals and expectations of the real estate price regression model, using acombination of qualitative and quantitative methods, to the Ganzhou City chapter2003-2010years running whether there are real estate bubbles analysis measure,and on this basis proposes to the real estate bubble prevention countermeasuresand suggestions.This paper first introduces the concept of real estate bubble, a detailedanalysis of the foam formation, formation and collapse of all six stages in theprocess; summarize once again of the real estate bubble detection method, namelyindex indicating method, statistical test, theoretical price law, and for eachmethod are briefly described, finally presented in this paper in Ganzhou City realestate bubble study adopted in the model; and then introduced Ganzhou City real estate development history and reality, the use of2003-2010annual statisticaldata on Ganzhou real estate bubble measure, calculate the extent of the bubble.The empirical results show that2003-2005Ganzhou City real estate froth degreevalue is smaller, the real estate market prices and economic fundamentals of theequilibrium price difference between is not large, the more reasonable, during thatperiod, Ganzhou City real estate market is healthy;2005-2010bubble expandsrapidly, greatly deviated from the economic fundamentals can the equilibrium pricesupport. Also by four single indexes in Ganzhou City real estate bubble situationundertook further analysis, it is pointed out that the Ganzhou City real estateprices are down space. Finally put forward respectively from the land transfersystem, the housing security system, tax system and strengthen financial riskcontrol and other aspects of the real estate bubble prevention countermeasures.Hope that through this study, can cause social all circles to the real estatebubble profound attention, pay close attention to the real estate pricefluctuations, and carries on the correct guidance, the real estate market healthydevelopment has the vital significance.