Study On The Mid-Long Term Energy Forecasting And Early Warning System

With rapid economic development, the energy demand is growing up consistently in China. The energy problem is becoming more and more serious, therefore it is extremely urgent to establish the energy early warning system to improve energy security and assist energy policy and management in China. Based on review and adsorption of the early warning research in relative fields, the theory of energy forecasting and early warning system (EFEWS) is put forward and applied with the characteristics of the energy system in consideration.The basic concepts of EFEWS are formed to establish the theoretical basis with reference to the warning concepts in other fields. Then the relationship between the early forecasting and early warning is discussed. It shows that energy forecasting is the basis of early warning, and the energy early warning is an application of the forecasting results. The energy forecasting should focus on the database, method and result analysis. The energy warning should emphasize warning meanings, source, symbol, and mitigation measures. Finally the steps for EFEWS are systematically analyzed one by one.The EFEWS framework is established considering the whole energy system. The EFEWS is composed of coal, power, oil, natural gas, renewable energy and new energy, and energy economic subsystem. The indices of the respective subsystem are set up and the index system is then established.The modified SGM (Second Generation Model) is applied to establish the model base for the EFEWS, and its long term forecasting function is extended. The number of sectors is extended from 22 to 39 to be adapted to China status, as well as the demand functions. The circular economy is also considered to make the mathematical energy description more close to the reality as the resource saving and comprehensive reclamation are being advocated. The hybrid input-output technique is used to keep consistency between the physical quantity and value quantity for energy.The key indices are selected for the mid-long EFEWS in China. Based on the energy resource status, the primary energy demands in 2020 and 2030 are projected by base scenario (BS) and sustainable development scenario (SDS). The energy security is analyzed for 2020 and 2030 on the basis of the primary energy demand predication with SGM. The comprehensive warning indices are dangerous in 2020 and 2030 under BS, and worth attention in 2020 and 2030 under SDS. For the energy subsystem, the status of the coal is relatively secure, the danger mainly lies in the resources; the oil is the most pessimistic, the danger mainly lies in resources and high foreign dependence; the danger of the natural gas mainly lies in the infrastructure construction; the power is secure in the set scenarios. The sustainable development road must be insisted on and the predominant energy categories be relied to cope with the energy crisis.Some suggestions are given to establish the EFEWS from policy construction, theory and method study, security measures and international cooperation in China.