China's Oil Import Price Risks Early Warning Mechanism

As a kind of important industry material and tactical resources, oil has played an important role on economical development. Along with rapid development of economy, the demand on oil has increased quickly and the gap domestic between supply and demand enhanced year by year, so importing oil is significant on resolving problem of the increasing gap. But the price of oil international changes dramatically. So, how to improve the capability of resisting risks, decrease the cost on oil import and strengthen the competition in international oil market has been becoming a problem which needs to be resolved immediately.This article intends to establish an early-warning mechanism which can forecast the general region of future oil price and alarm us from the related factors which effect oil price most. Thus we can reach the aim of decreasing cost on oil import and increasing the profits.This article has summarized the condition and characters of oil import in recent ten years, and classified all factors into three categories, which are international factors, domestic factors and factors not mentioned above. Five experts from Business Management College of Southwest Petroleum University participated the experts survey of the factors which effect oil price most, and then a quantitative way was analyzed in the survey of this article, and the indexes of early-warning system were gotten.On the base of index system, an early-warning system on oil import of our country was established in this article, which is used to forecast and alarm the future region of oil price as well. The system includes six main aspects:(1)Pick up indexes which passed the test of significance through the correlative analysis by using economical software of EViews.(2)Analyze characteristics of oil price in recent ten years and estimate the grade...