Shandong Province, Rural Labor Transfer Based On The Opportunity Cost Of Research

Shandong is a province with a large population of95,800,000in2012. And the ratio of agriculture population reached58%, making the majority part of the whole population. And the high‐speed development of economy makes the problem of manpower surplus more outstanding. The problem solving to transfer agriculture surplus manpower will promote industrial process of Shandong, speeding up Shandong’s urbanization. So this thesis deals with Shandong’s agricultural manpower transfer and does a research on its opportunity cost problem in this process.In this paper, the research method is combined with qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, theory analysis and empirical analysis.In the view of transfer distribution of agricultural surplus labor force, Shandong’s surplus manpower transfer is far from balanced in region distribution. Integrally, the scale of agricultural surplus manpower in the west and north area of Shandong is still large, with a rather high ratio of surplus, which makes it a rather heavy mission to transfer. Luckily, the situation in the east of Shandong will be easier.After viewing Shandong’s agricultural manpower transfer history, we find the following characteristics: The number of agricultural labor force transfer is increasing with time passing by; Agricultural manpower transfer differs in region thing; Transferred agricultural manpower is still being discriminated against and gained unfair treatment; The region that accepts agricultural manpower transfer gathers, mainly distributing at county and regional city; Agricultural manpower transfer to gathered industries, such as manufacturing, building, wholesaling, lodging and catering industry; Transferred agricultural manpower’ quality increases; Manpower transfer organizing is getting improved and more standard and ordered; The speed of Shandong’s agricultural manpower transfer is slowing down.The cost opportunity of Shandong’s agricultural manpower transfer is in atendency of increasing, and it differs with an obvious regional variation. Costopportunity has an influence on transfer region and format of Shandong’s agriculturalmanpower with a high percent in the whole cost of24.3%. Agricultural manpower transfer is a process or result that is influenced by many complicated factors, including human capital, cultivated area per capita, cost opportunity, work income, etc....Through building a decision‐making model of Shandong’s agricultural manpower transfer, we get from analysis that those four elements influence the transfer in different ways. Work income and human capital push the transfer in a positive way, otherwise, cultivated area per capita and cost opportunity have an negative influence on the transfer.